Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
EPS actual
$1.02
EPS est.
$1.01
EPS surprise
+0.59%
1-day move
-13.16%
Badger Meter's earnings report showed an EPS beat, but the stock reacted negatively, dropping 13.16%. Investors may be concerned about the lack of revenue details and forward guidance, which could indicate uncertainty about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.02 | N/A | +0.59% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) is a technology company that specializes in electronic equipment and instruments, particularly in the water management sector. As a key player in the information technology sector, BMI focuses on providing innovative solutions for measuring and managing water usage, which is increasingly important in today's resource-conscious environment.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Badger Meter reported an EPS of $0.93, which was significantly below the expected $1.20, resulting in a 24.13% drop in stock price the following day. The company faced challenges in meeting market expectations, which may impact investor sentiment moving forward.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+1.83%
Avg 1-day reaction
-8.03%
Overall, expectations for Badger Meter's upcoming earnings are cautious due to the significant EPS miss last quarter. Investors are looking for signs of recovery and improvement in operational efficiency.
Bull case
If Badger Meter can demonstrate a rebound in EPS and revenue growth, it may restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to show improvement or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.93?
Given the significant miss last quarter, the EPS figure will be crucial in determining if the company is on a recovery path.
Q2
What guidance will management provide for revenue growth moving forward?
Future revenue guidance will help investors gauge the company's outlook and growth potential in a competitive market.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Badger Meter's ability to rebound from its recent earnings miss, as historical patterns suggest a recovery is possible.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 5.5% move, which is below the historical average of 9.65%, indicating potential undervaluation of volatility.
The company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates 75% of the time suggests that a recovery is plausible.
Key risk
If EPS comes in above $1.10, it could significantly shift investor sentiment and challenge the current bearish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core thesis this quarter revolves around whether Badger Meter can recover from its previous earnings miss and provide a positive outlook.
Bull confirmed if
A rebound in EPS to at least $1.10 would confirm the bull case and indicate improved operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.90 would confirm the bear case and suggest ongoing challenges in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.5%
Historical Avg
±11.1%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.5% in either direction, indicating uncertainty among investors ahead of the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±5.5% while BMI has averaged ±11.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
88.5%
Cross-company pattern from 28 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Information Technology
Fade rate: 9 of 28 (32%)
This setup has occurred 28 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 19 of 28 (68%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 7.7%, with a raw directional average of +4.5% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
118.88%
of float
Insider
0.62%
of float
Holders
656
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
4,892,342 sh · $607.0M
16.88%
-1.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Badger Meter beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, averaging around a 2.95% increase on such outcomes.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of around 17.57%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,504,823 sh · $310.8M
8.64%
2.2%
State Street Corporation
1,651,414 sh · $204.9M
5.70%
8.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,317,325 sh · $163.4M
4.54%
1.2%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
1,008,392 sh · $125.1M
3.48%
7.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.