Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Apr 30, 2026
EPS actual
$1.58
EPS est.
$1.44
EPS surprise
+9.65%
1-day move
+5.21%
Bristol-Myers Squibb reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which contributed to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising by 5.21%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may view the EPS beat as a sign of operational strength, but the lack of revenue data could lead to cautious sentiment moving forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.58 | $1.42 | +9.65% |
| Revenue | N/A | $10.9B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) is a leading pharmaceutical company that focuses on discovering, developing, and delivering innovative medicines for serious diseases. As a key player in the health care sector, its performance can significantly impact investor sentiment, especially given ongoing trends in biotechnology and personalized medicine.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Bristol-Myers Squibb reported an EPS of $1.26, surpassing expectations by 9.28%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.30% the following day.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+12.41%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.87%
Analysts expect Bristol-Myers Squibb to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.42 and revenue of $10.9 billion. The company has a history of exceeding EPS estimates, which could lead to positive market reactions.
Bull case
If the company beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products and lead to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS expectations or shows declining revenue, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and negatively impact the stock.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.42Earnings per share (EPS) is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$10.9BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed $1.42, indicating continued strong performance?
A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Q2
What are the revenue figures, and do they align with the $10.9 billion consensus?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market demand.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Bristol-Myers Squibb to exceed EPS expectations, given its recent history of strong performance.
Supporting evidence
Bristol-Myers has a 75% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters, indicating a strong likelihood of exceeding expectations.
The average 1-day move when they beat is +4.04%, suggesting that positive surprises have historically led to significant stock gains.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS below $1.30, it could invalidate the bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is focused on both EPS and revenue growth as indicators of Bristol-Myers Squibb's future performance.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest strong underlying business performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.30 would support the bear case and raise concerns about the company's growth prospects.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.5%
Historical Avg
±4.3%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 4.5% in either direction following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing ±4.5% while BMY has averaged ±4.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
23.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Health Care
Fade rate: 7 of 23 (30%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 16 of 23 (70%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.2%, with a raw directional average of +0.6% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.89%
of float
Insider
0.10%
of float
Holders
3,258
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
180,384,994 sh · $10.8B
8.83%
5.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Bristol-Myers Squibb beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +4.04%, confirming strong demand for its products.
In line / cautious
If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of -7.16%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
133,337,856 sh · $8.0B
6.53%
0.8%
State Street Corporation
102,408,940 sh · $6.1B
5.01%
3.9%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
71,713,442 sh · $4.3B
3.51%
-22.4%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
67,595,177 sh · $4.0B
3.31%
10.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded May 7, 2026 · disclosed Jun 11, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.