Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$2.04
EPS est.
$1.59
EPS surprise
+28.14%
1-day move
+2.79%
Bristol-Myers Squibb reported a strong earnings per share, significantly beating analyst expectations. This positive surprise likely contributed to the stock's 2.79% increase following the announcement. However, the lack of revenue data and guidance updates leaves some uncertainty about the company's future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.04 | $1.66 | +28.14% |
| Revenue | — | $12.4B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) is a major player in the health care sector, focusing on pharmaceuticals that treat serious diseases. With a market cap of $132 billion, the company is known for its innovative therapies in oncology, immunology, and cardiovascular diseases, making it a significant contributor to advancements in medical treatments.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb reported an EPS of $1.58, beating estimates by 9.65%. The stock reacted positively, gaining over 5% the next day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+12.41%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.87%
Analysts expect Bristol-Myers Squibb to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.66. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its positive momentum from the previous quarter.
Bull case
If the company exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, leading to a further increase in stock price.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and negatively impact the stock.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.66Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating profit.
Revenue
$12.4BTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is crucial for assessing growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.66?
A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance will management provide for revenue growth?
Guidance on revenue is crucial for understanding future growth prospects and market demand.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±18.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the impact of new product launches on revenue growth this quarter, as recent trends suggest stronger demand than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Bristol-Myers has a history of exceeding EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a move that aligns with historical averages, suggesting the potential for a larger reaction.
Recent positive trends in oncology sales could indicate stronger-than-expected revenue.
Key risk
If revenue comes in below $12B, it could challenge the optimistic growth narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Bristol-Myers can sustain its recent growth trajectory amid competitive pressures.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.60 would raise concerns about profitability and growth potential.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.83%
Historical Avg
±5.36%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 4.83% in either direction following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing a 4.83% move, which is in line with the historical average of 5.36%.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
25.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.89%
of float
Insider
0.10%
of float
Holders
3,258
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
180,384,994 sh · $10.8B
8.83%
5.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Bristol-Myers beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 4.21% on the next trading day, confirming strong demand for its products.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 5.81%, raising concerns about its growth outlook.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
133,337,856 sh · $8.0B
6.53%
0.8%
State Street Corporation
102,408,940 sh · $6.1B
5.01%
3.9%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
71,713,442 sh · $4.3B
3.51%
-22.4%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
67,595,177 sh · $4.0B
3.31%
10.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded May 7, 2026 · disclosed Jun 11, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.