Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Apr 28, 2026
EPS actual
$1.47
EPS est.
$0.91
EPS surprise
+61.01%
1-day move
+0.83%
BP's strong EPS performance indicates better-than-expected profitability, which is a positive sign for the company. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.61%. This may reflect investor concerns about the lack of revenue data and guidance, leaving uncertainty about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.47 | $0.88 | +61.01% |
| Revenue | N/A | $46.0B | N/A |
Management expressed satisfaction with the earnings per share results, highlighting the company's resilience. They acknowledged ongoing market challenges but emphasized their commitment to long-term goals.
We are pleased with our EPS performance this quarter.
Market conditions remain challenging, but we are focused on our long-term strategy.
BP p.l.c. is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on integrated oil and gas operations. With a market cap of $119 billion, it plays a crucial role in global energy supply, especially as the world transitions to more sustainable energy sources.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, BP reported an EPS of $0.60, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock fell by 5.74% the following day, indicating market disappointment.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-1.14%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.70%
Analysts expect BP to report an EPS of $0.88 and revenue of $46.0 billion for Q1 2026. The market is watching closely for any signs of recovery in oil prices and operational improvements.
Bull case
If BP exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal a robust recovery and improved market conditions, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if BP misses estimates or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the energy sector and lead to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.88EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$46.0BRevenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing overall performance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will BP's EPS exceed $0.88, indicating stronger profitability?
A beat on EPS could signal effective cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance will BP provide regarding future revenue growth?
Clear guidance on revenue growth is essential for assessing BP's ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on opportunities.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate BP's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and improve operational efficiency.
Supporting evidence
BP's recent focus on renewable energy could enhance long-term growth prospects.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.
Insider buying activity suggests confidence in BP's future performance.
Key risk
If BP's revenue growth exceeds $46.0 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating BP's ability to manage costs and grow revenue amidst fluctuating oil prices.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.90 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.70 would raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.2%
Historical Avg
±3.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.0% while BP has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
32.4%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
14.10%
of float
Insider
0.00%
of float
Holders
1,361
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Fisher Asset Management, LLC
66,310,416 sh · $3.0B
2.53%
-0.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If BP beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +3.1%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If BP meets expectations but provides cautious guidance, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average move of -0.8%, indicating market disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Acadian Asset Management. LLC
23,072,128 sh · $1.0B
0.88%
29.4%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
18,733,560 sh · $833.8M
0.72%
4.6%
Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership
17,366,858 sh · $773.0M
0.66%
35.5%
State Street Corporation
15,040,506 sh · $669.5M
0.57%
-7.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.