Equity Profile

BTU

Peabody Energy Corporation

EnergyCoal & Consumable Fuels$3.4B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is a leading coal producer in the energy sector, focusing on the extraction and sale of coal for electricity generation and steel production. As the world shifts toward cleaner energy, Peabody's role in the coal industry remains significant, especially in regions where coal is still a primary energy source.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into sales performance and demand for coal, which is critical for understanding the company's market position.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BTU Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-594.29%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Peabody reported an EPS of -$0.27, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 5.73% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Peabody's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially given recent performance and the broader energy market dynamics.

Bull Case

If Peabody can show improved cost management and a rebound in coal demand, it may surprise positively, leading to a stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued losses and weak revenue could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant drop in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the company's recent struggles, the EPS figure will be crucial in assessing whether Peabody is making progress toward profitability.

What are the revenue expectations for coal sales this quarter?

Revenue from coal sales will indicate demand trends and the company's ability to navigate a challenging market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Peabody's ability to adapt to changing market conditions, particularly if coal demand stabilizes or increases.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 26% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not align with the actual performance.

The historical EPS beat rate of only 38% suggests that the market may be overly pessimistic about potential recovery.

Key Risk

If coal demand shows unexpected strength, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be pivotal in determining whether Peabody can stabilize its financial situation amidst fluctuating coal demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.05 or better would confirm a positive turnaround in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.50 or worse would confirm ongoing challenges and investor concerns.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±26.0%

Historical Avg

±5.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a large potential move, indicating uncertainty about the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±26.0% while BTU has averaged ±5.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

56.9%

Calls (3.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.47Puts (472K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 18 of 29 (62%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 18 of 29 (62%) reversed within 5 days — this setup typically fades. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.4%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Peabody beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 5.91%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.29%, reinforcing concerns about the company's financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal demand trends and pricing.
2Management's commentary on cost control measures.
3Insights into operational efficiency improvements.
4Discussion of market conditions affecting coal sales.
5Any guidance on future earnings expectations.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into sales performance and demand for coal, which is critical for understanding the company's market position.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BTU Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-594.29%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Peabody reported an EPS of -$0.27, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 5.73% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Peabody's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially given recent performance and the broader energy market dynamics.

Bull Case

If Peabody can show improved cost management and a rebound in coal demand, it may surprise positively, leading to a stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued losses and weak revenue could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant drop in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the company's recent struggles, the EPS figure will be crucial in assessing whether Peabody is making progress toward profitability.

What are the revenue expectations for coal sales this quarter?

Revenue from coal sales will indicate demand trends and the company's ability to navigate a challenging market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Peabody's ability to adapt to changing market conditions, particularly if coal demand stabilizes or increases.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 26% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not align with the actual performance.

The historical EPS beat rate of only 38% suggests that the market may be overly pessimistic about potential recovery.

Key Risk

If coal demand shows unexpected strength, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be pivotal in determining whether Peabody can stabilize its financial situation amidst fluctuating coal demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.05 or better would confirm a positive turnaround in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.50 or worse would confirm ongoing challenges and investor concerns.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±26.0%

Historical Avg

±5.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a large potential move, indicating uncertainty about the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±26.0% while BTU has averaged ±5.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

56.9%

Calls (3.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.47Puts (472K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 18 of 29 (62%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Peabody beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 5.91%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.29%, reinforcing concerns about the company's financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal demand trends and pricing.
2Management's commentary on cost control measures.
3Insights into operational efficiency improvements.
4Discussion of market conditions affecting coal sales.
5Any guidance on future earnings expectations.