Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.74
EPS est.
$-0.31
EPS surprise
-138.71%
1-day move
-10.41%
Peabody Energy's earnings report for Q2 2026 showed a significant loss per share, leading to a sharp decline in stock price by 10.41%. The lack of revenue figures and management commentary adds uncertainty about the company's current performance and future outlook. Investors may be concerned about the implications of the negative EPS and the absence of guidance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.74 | N/A | -138.71% |
| Revenue | — | N/A | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is a leading coal producer in the energy sector, focusing on the extraction and sale of coal for electricity generation and steel production. As global energy demands evolve, Peabody's role in the coal industry is significant, especially amidst discussions about energy transition and sustainability.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Peabody reported an EPS of -$0.27, significantly missing estimates, which led to a 5.73% drop in stock price the following day. The company continues to face challenges in a fluctuating energy market.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-632.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.37%
Analysts have mixed expectations for Peabody's upcoming earnings, given the recent history of earnings misses and the volatility in coal prices. Investors are cautious but hopeful for a turnaround.
Bull case
If Peabody can show improved operational efficiency and better-than-expected coal demand, it could signal a recovery and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Continued losses or further declines in coal prices could lead to a negative reaction from the market, especially given the company's recent performance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous estimates?
Given the company's recent history of earnings misses, the EPS figure will be crucial in determining market sentiment.
Q2
What are the revenue figures and how do they reflect coal demand trends?
Understanding revenue performance will provide insight into the company's market position and future outlook.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in coal prices, which could positively impact Peabody's earnings this quarter.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 26% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not reflect the company's potential for recovery.
The recent historical trend shows that after a series of misses, companies often rebound as market conditions stabilize.
Key risk
If coal prices rise significantly, it could lead to a surprise positive EPS, contradicting current bearish expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Peabody can stabilize its earnings amidst a challenging market.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.10 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate a potential recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than $0.30 would confirm the bear case, signaling ongoing struggles.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±26.0%
Historical Avg
±6.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating high uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±26.0% while BTU has averaged ±6.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
56.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Energy
Fade rate: 18 of 29 (62%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 18 of 29 (62%) reversed within 5 days — this setup typically fades. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.4%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
100.75%
of float
Insider
0.99%
of float
Holders
433
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
18,844,773 sh · $468.3M
15.47%
5.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Peabody beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 5.91%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to muted reactions, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the coal market.
Miss
If the company misses again, history suggests a drop of about 3.29%, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
State Street Corporation
11,126,764 sh · $276.5M
9.14%
7.2%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
8,157,317 sh · $202.7M
6.70%
-10.8%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
6,337,778 sh · $157.5M
5.20%
1.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
5,492,213 sh · $136.5M
4.51%
0.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.