Equity Profile

BTU

Peabody Energy Corporation

EnergyCoal & Consumable Fuels$2.9B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is a leading coal producer in the energy sector, focusing on the extraction and sale of coal for electricity generation and industrial use. As global energy dynamics shift, Peabody's role in providing coal remains significant amid debates about energy sources and sustainability.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate demand for Peabody's coal products and overall market conditions.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BTU Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-594.29%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Peabody reported an EPS of -$0.27, significantly missing estimates, which led to a 5.73% drop in stock price the following day. The company continues to face challenges in maintaining profitability amid fluctuating coal prices.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic but wary of Peabody's ability to recover after recent earnings misses. The market is closely watching for any signs of improved performance or guidance.

Bull Case

If Peabody can demonstrate a rebound in demand for coal and improved cost management, it could lead to a strong earnings surprise and positive stock movement.

Bear Case

Continued losses or weak revenue could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant drop in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent history of significant EPS misses, this number will be critical in assessing whether Peabody is on a recovery path.

How is Peabody addressing the challenges in coal pricing and demand?

Insights into pricing strategies and market demand will help investors gauge the company's future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in coal demand due to recent energy supply constraints.

Supporting Evidence

Peabody's historical volatility suggests that the market may be overly pessimistic given recent price fluctuations.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, reflecting uncertainty that could lead to a surprise outcome.

Recent coal price trends show signs of stabilization, which could positively impact earnings.

Key Risk

If coal demand rebounds significantly, it could lead to a much stronger performance than currently anticipated.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Peabody can turn around its recent performance and capitalize on any recovery in coal demand.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS surprise of at least $0.10 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.50 or worse would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±26.01%

Historical Avg

±5.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±26.0% while BTU has averaged ±5.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

56.9%

Calls (3.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.47Puts (472K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Peabody beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 5.91%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.29%, reinforcing concerns over the company's profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal pricing trends and their impact on revenue.
2Management's outlook on demand for coal in the upcoming quarters.
3Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
4Insights into market competition and Peabody's positioning.
5Any commentary on regulatory impacts affecting the coal industry.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate demand for Peabody's coal products and overall market conditions.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BTU Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-594.29%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic but wary of Peabody's ability to recover after recent earnings misses. The market is closely watching for any signs of improved performance or guidance.

Bull Case

If Peabody can demonstrate a rebound in demand for coal and improved cost management, it could lead to a strong earnings surprise and positive stock movement.

Bear Case

Continued losses or weak revenue could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant drop in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent history of significant EPS misses, this number will be critical in assessing whether Peabody is on a recovery path.

How is Peabody addressing the challenges in coal pricing and demand?

Insights into pricing strategies and market demand will help investors gauge the company's future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in coal demand due to recent energy supply constraints.

Supporting Evidence

Peabody's historical volatility suggests that the market may be overly pessimistic given recent price fluctuations.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, reflecting uncertainty that could lead to a surprise outcome.

Recent coal price trends show signs of stabilization, which could positively impact earnings.

Key Risk

If coal demand rebounds significantly, it could lead to a much stronger performance than currently anticipated.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Peabody can turn around its recent performance and capitalize on any recovery in coal demand.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS surprise of at least $0.10 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.50 or worse would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±26.01%

Historical Avg

±5.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±26.0% while BTU has averaged ±5.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

56.9%

Calls (3.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.47Puts (472K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Peabody beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 5.91%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.29%, reinforcing concerns over the company's profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on coal pricing trends and their impact on revenue.
2Management's outlook on demand for coal in the upcoming quarters.
3Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
4Insights into market competition and Peabody's positioning.
5Any commentary on regulatory impacts affecting the coal industry.