Equity Profile

BURL

Burlington Stores, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryApparel Retail$20.0B

May28Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:45 AM EDT

Burlington Stores Beats on EPS, Stock Down 7.88%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.10	$1.79	+18.51%
Revenue	N/A	$2.8B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Burlington Stores Beats on EPS, Stock Down 7.88%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.10	$1.79	+18.51%
Revenue	N/A	$2.8B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

Burlington Stores reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which indicates strong profitability. However, the stock fell by nearly 8%, suggesting that investors may have been disappointed by the lack of revenue information or other factors not disclosed in the earnings call.

Company Snapshot

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) operates in the consumer discretionary sector, specifically in apparel retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$1.79

Revenue

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to attract and retain customers in a competitive retail environment.

$2.8B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) operates in the consumer discretionary sector, specifically in apparel retail. The company offers a wide range of clothing, footwear, and home goods at discounted prices, making it a popular choice for budget-conscious shoppers. As consumer spending patterns evolve, Burlington's performance can provide insights into broader retail trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.92%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Burlington reported an EPS of $4.89, exceeding expectations and resulting in a positive stock reaction. However, revenue details were not disclosed.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding product offerings to attract more customers.
Commitment to improving supply chain efficiency.
Plans to enhance in-store and online shopping experiences.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Burlington to report solid earnings driven by strong consumer demand, with a consensus EPS of $1.79. However, there are concerns about inflation and its impact on consumer spending.

Bull Case

If Burlington exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings estimates or provides cautious guidance, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate economic challenges, potentially leading to a stock decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.79

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$2.8B

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to attract and retain customers in a competitive retail environment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Burlington's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.79?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and consumer demand, which would likely boost investor confidence.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth in the current economic climate?

Management's outlook on revenue will be crucial for understanding how they expect to navigate potential challenges in consumer spending.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Burlington's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences, especially in the discount retail space.

Supporting Evidence

Burlington has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a move of 7.68%, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with consensus expectations.

Historical performance shows that Burlington's stock has reacted positively to earnings beats, which could indicate a stronger underlying demand than anticipated.

Key Risk

If Burlington's revenue growth exceeds $2.9B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Burlington can sustain its growth amid economic pressures, making these thresholds critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.85 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.70 would raise concerns about profitability and consumer demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.68%

Historical Avg

±6.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.7% while BURL has averaged ±6.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.3%

30d HV

36.7%

Calls (179K)P/C Ratio: 1.38Puts (103K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 17 (41%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 7 of 17 faded and 10 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.5% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Burlington beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction, averaging a +2.26% move on such occasions.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

A miss could lead to a significant decline, with historical data indicating an average move of -4.52% following disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain improvements and their impact on costs.
2Insights into consumer spending trends and how they are affecting sales.
3Details on new store openings and their expected contributions to revenue.
4Management's commentary on competitive pressures in the discount retail space.
5Any changes to the company's long-term growth strategy.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

JOYY Inc.

Company Snapshot

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) operates in the consumer discretionary sector, specifically in apparel retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$1.79

Revenue

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to attract and retain customers in a competitive retail environment.

$2.8B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.92%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Burlington reported an EPS of $4.89, exceeding expectations and resulting in a positive stock reaction. However, revenue details were not disclosed.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding product offerings to attract more customers.
Commitment to improving supply chain efficiency.
Plans to enhance in-store and online shopping experiences.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Burlington to report solid earnings driven by strong consumer demand, with a consensus EPS of $1.79. However, there are concerns about inflation and its impact on consumer spending.

Bull Case

If Burlington exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings estimates or provides cautious guidance, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate economic challenges, potentially leading to a stock decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.79

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$2.8B

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to attract and retain customers in a competitive retail environment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Burlington's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.79?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and consumer demand, which would likely boost investor confidence.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth in the current economic climate?

Management's outlook on revenue will be crucial for understanding how they expect to navigate potential challenges in consumer spending.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Burlington's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences, especially in the discount retail space.

Supporting Evidence

Burlington has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a move of 7.68%, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with consensus expectations.

Historical performance shows that Burlington's stock has reacted positively to earnings beats, which could indicate a stronger underlying demand than anticipated.

Key Risk

If Burlington's revenue growth exceeds $2.9B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Burlington can sustain its growth amid economic pressures, making these thresholds critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.85 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.70 would raise concerns about profitability and consumer demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.68%

Historical Avg

±6.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.7% while BURL has averaged ±6.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.3%

30d HV

36.7%

Calls (179K)P/C Ratio: 1.38Puts (103K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 17 (41%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Burlington beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction, averaging a +2.26% move on such occasions.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

A miss could lead to a significant decline, with historical data indicating an average move of -4.52% following disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain improvements and their impact on costs.
2Insights into consumer spending trends and how they are affecting sales.
3Details on new store openings and their expected contributions to revenue.
4Management's commentary on competitive pressures in the discount retail space.
5Any changes to the company's long-term growth strategy.