Equity Profile

BUSE

First Busey Corporation

FinancialsRegional Banks$2.3B

Apr22Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

First Busey Corporation is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including commercial banking, wealth management, and mortgage services. With a market cap of $2 billion, it plays a vital role in local economies by supporting businesses and individuals with their financial needs.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid, crucial for assessing the bank's profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BUSE Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-20.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.04%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, First Busey reported an EPS of $0.52, falling short of the expected $0.57, marking a 9.09% surprise. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.08% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially after the recent EPS miss. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and growth.

Bull Case

If First Busey can demonstrate strong loan growth and improved net interest margins, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank reports another EPS miss or weak loan growth, it may raise concerns about its operational efficiency and market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether the company is on a recovery path or if it continues to struggle.

How has loan growth performed in the last quarter?

Loan growth is a key driver of revenue for banks, and understanding this metric will help gauge the company's operational health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for loan growth recovery, which could significantly improve profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent misses, the bank has historically shown a strong ability to rebound.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Insider selling may not reflect broader confidence in the bank's future performance.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a disappointing EPS in the previous quarter, and investors are looking for signs of improvement.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.60 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the bank's operational efficiency.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.45%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.4% while BUSE has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

21.4%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$20,062.50

750 sh

1 insider

Net

$20,062.50

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If First Busey beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.79%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests an average one-day move of +1.77%, which could signal deeper issues.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on loan growth trends and expectations for the upcoming quarters.
2Updates on net interest margin performance and how it compares to previous quarters.
3Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
4Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting the banking sector.
5Any changes in regulatory impacts that could affect profitability.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid, crucial for assessing the bank's profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BUSE Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-20.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.04%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, First Busey reported an EPS of $0.52, falling short of the expected $0.57, marking a 9.09% surprise. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.08% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially after the recent EPS miss. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and growth.

Bull Case

If First Busey can demonstrate strong loan growth and improved net interest margins, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank reports another EPS miss or weak loan growth, it may raise concerns about its operational efficiency and market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether the company is on a recovery path or if it continues to struggle.

How has loan growth performed in the last quarter?

Loan growth is a key driver of revenue for banks, and understanding this metric will help gauge the company's operational health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for loan growth recovery, which could significantly improve profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent misses, the bank has historically shown a strong ability to rebound.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Insider selling may not reflect broader confidence in the bank's future performance.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a disappointing EPS in the previous quarter, and investors are looking for signs of improvement.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.60 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the bank's operational efficiency.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.45%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.4% while BUSE has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

21.4%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$20,062.50

750 sh

1 insider

Net

$20,062.50

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If First Busey beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.79%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests an average one-day move of +1.77%, which could signal deeper issues.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on loan growth trends and expectations for the upcoming quarters.
2Updates on net interest margin performance and how it compares to previous quarters.
3Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
4Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting the banking sector.
5Any changes in regulatory impacts that could affect profitability.