Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$1.54
EPS est.
$1.32
EPS surprise
+16.23%
1-day move
+1.37%
Blackstone's earnings report shows a solid beat on EPS, which likely contributed to the stock's 1.37% increase. However, without revenue figures or management commentary, investors may have limited insight into the company's overall performance and future outlook. The positive EPS surprise indicates better-than-expected profitability.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.54 | N/A | +16.23% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Blackstone Inc. is a leading global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $112 billion, it plays a crucial role in managing investments across various sectors, including real estate, private equity, and credit markets, which are vital for economic growth and stability.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Blackstone reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.83, significantly missing analyst expectations of $1.35. Following this disappointing result, the stock dropped 5.7% the next day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-19.51%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.57%
Overall, Wall Street is cautious ahead of Blackstone's Q2-2026 earnings report, especially after recent earnings misses. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in asset management performance and fee generation.
Bull case
If Blackstone can demonstrate strong growth in assets under management and improved fee structures, it could restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to report disappointing earnings and fails to show a turnaround in performance fees, it may lead to further declines in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the reported assets under management (AUM) this quarter?
AUM is a critical metric that reflects investor confidence and the firm's ability to attract new capital, which directly impacts revenue.
Q2
How have management and performance fees changed compared to last quarter?
Changes in fee structures can significantly affect profitability and provide insight into the firm's operational health and investment performance.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Blackstone's potential for recovery in AUM and fee generation, as recent market conditions could favor asset managers with diversified portfolios.
Supporting evidence
Despite recent misses, Blackstone's diversified investment strategy may position it well for a rebound.
Options pricing suggests a moderate move, indicating that the market may not fully reflect potential upside if AUM improves.
Historical trends show that Blackstone has successfully navigated challenging periods before, which could repeat.
Key risk
If AUM growth exceeds 5%, it could significantly shift market sentiment and expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on Blackstone's ability to recover from previous earnings misses and demonstrate a solid operational strategy.
Bull confirmed if
AUM growth of over 5% quarter-over-quarter, along with management fees showing a positive trend.
Bear confirmed if
AUM decline or stagnant management fees, indicating ongoing challenges in attracting and retaining investor capital.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.7%
Historical Avg
±3.6%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.7% in either direction following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.
Options pricing is consistent with the historical average move, suggesting that the market has set reasonable expectations.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
32.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing in-line setup in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$13.1M
3,892,776 sh
2 insiders
Net
$13.1M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 9 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
73.73%
of float
Insider
1.04%
of float
Holders
2,703
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
51,943,245 sh · $5.8B
6.92%
-1.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Blackstone beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 6.27%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future performance.
Miss
In the event of another earnings miss, history suggests a decline of approximately 1.58%, reinforcing concerns about the firm's growth trajectory.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$11.1M
Net selling
$2.1M
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 28, 2026 · @ $2.94
1,652,209 sh
$4.9M
Sep 28, 2026 · @ $2.94
1,257,280 sh
$3.7M
Sep 25, 2026 · @ $16.40
124,600 sh
$2.0M
Sep 28, 2026 · @ $2.94
544,646 sh
$1.6M
Sep 28, 2026 · @ $2.94
204,109 sh
$599,692.65
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
48,510,319 sh · $5.4B
6.46%
0.4%
Morgan Stanley
34,842,332 sh · $3.9B
4.64%
7.2%
State Street Corporation
32,463,609 sh · $3.6B
4.32%
1.4%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
23,500,355 sh · $2.6B
3.13%
10.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.