Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.21
EPS est.
$0.34
EPS surprise
-38.24%
1-day move
-4.65%
The earnings report indicates that Blackstone Mortgage Trust faced significant challenges this quarter, leading to a notable miss on EPS. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 5.2%, likely due to investor concerns about the company's ability to generate expected earnings in a tough market. Without guidance, investors may remain cautious about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.21 | $0.35 | -38.24% |
| Revenue | N/A | $92M | N/A |
Overall, management expressed concern about the current economic environment affecting performance. They highlighted efforts to navigate these challenges while maintaining asset quality.
Management acknowledged the challenging market conditions impacting earnings.
They emphasized a focus on maintaining portfolio quality despite lower returns.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in mortgage loans secured by commercial properties. As part of the financial sector, BXMT plays a crucial role in providing financing solutions in a fluctuating real estate market, which is particularly relevant given current economic conditions and interest rate trends.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, BXMT reported an EPS of $0.64, significantly exceeding expectations of $0.20, which marked a strong performance. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.04% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+61.64%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.87%
Analysts expect BXMT to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.35. The company has a history of beating earnings expectations, which could lead to positive market reactions.
Bull case
If BXMT can maintain or exceed its previous EPS performance, it may signal strong management and a healthy mortgage portfolio, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet the consensus EPS or shows signs of weakening in its mortgage investments, it could lead to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.35Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge how well BXMT is managing its mortgage investments.
Revenue
92MRevenue figures will provide insights into the overall performance of BXMT's mortgage portfolio and its ability to generate income from its investments.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will BXMT's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.35?
A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence in the company's management and its mortgage portfolio's performance.
Q2
What insights will BXMT provide regarding its revenue generation from mortgage investments?
Understanding revenue trends will be crucial for assessing the company's future growth potential and stability.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate BXMT's ability to generate revenue from its mortgage portfolio, given its recent strong performance and strategic focus on high-quality loans.
Supporting evidence
BXMT has consistently beaten EPS expectations, suggesting stronger operational performance than anticipated.
The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, indicating that traders may not fully appreciate the potential for a significant upside.
Key risk
If BXMT reports an EPS significantly above $0.35, it could shift market sentiment and challenge the current consensus.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be pivotal in determining whether BXMT can sustain its recent momentum or if it will face challenges in a changing economic landscape.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.45 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.20 would raise concerns about the company's mortgage portfolio and management effectiveness.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.64%
Historical Avg
±3.4%
The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 3.64%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±4.1% while BXMT has averaged ±3.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
26.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials
Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.4%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$20,091.42
1,725 sh
1 insider
Net
$20,091.42
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$20,091.42
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
69.85%
of float
Insider
1.32%
of float
Holders
434
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
24,981,252 sh · $279.8M
14.82%
2.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If BXMT beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 1.1% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
Should BXMT miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 1.5%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $11.65
1,725 sh
$20,091.42
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Blackstone Inc
9,283,323 sh · $104.0M
5.51%
Flat
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8,895,012 sh · $99.6M
5.28%
1.2%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
7,158,499 sh · $80.2M
4.25%
-0.8%
State Street Corporation
6,416,582 sh · $71.9M
3.81%
4.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.