Equity Profile

CAR

Avis Budget Group, Inc.

IndustrialsPassenger Ground Transportation$5.5B

May4Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) is a leading provider of vehicle rental services, operating under well-known brands like Avis and Budget....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential to assess how well Avis is recovering from previous downturns and adapting to market conditions.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CAR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) is a leading provider of vehicle rental services, operating under well-known brands like Avis and Budget. As part of the industrials sector, the company plays a crucial role in passenger ground transportation, which is influenced by trends in travel demand and consumer spending.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1654.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.40%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Avis reported an EPS of -$8.01, which was worse than the estimated -$6.83, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market. The stock reacted slightly negatively, dropping 0.47% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Avis Budget Group are cautious, given the recent history of earnings misses and significant EPS surprises. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in rental demand and profitability.

Bull Case

If Avis can demonstrate improved rental volumes and better-than-expected EPS, it could signal a strong recovery in consumer travel and spending, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another significant loss or fails to show improvement in rental demand, it could further erode investor confidence and lead to a sharp decline in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected rental volume for the upcoming quarter?

This metric will indicate consumer demand and operational recovery, which are critical for assessing the company's future performance.

How does management plan to address the recent EPS losses?

Investors will be looking for concrete plans or strategies to improve profitability and reduce losses moving forward.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in rental demand as travel restrictions ease, leading to a stronger-than-expected performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders are anticipating volatility that may not align with consensus expectations.

The recent historical trend shows that Avis has often surprised investors, indicating potential for a positive outcome despite recent losses.

Key Risk

If rental volume exceeds expectations significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Avis can turn around its recent performance and regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

A rental volume increase of at least 15% compared to the previous quarter would confirm a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$8.00 would confirm ongoing struggles and could lead to further declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.8%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 7.8%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while CAR has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

257.9%

Calls (937K)P/C Ratio: 0.26Puts (922K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Avis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.47%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their expectations.

Miss

If Avis misses again, the stock could drop, with historical patterns indicating an average decline of around 0.29%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on rental volume trends compared to previous quarters.
2Management's strategy for improving profitability in light of recent losses.
3Insights into consumer travel behavior and demand forecasts.
4Details on cost management and operational efficiencies.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the vehicle rental market.

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Company Snapshot

Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) is a leading provider of vehicle rental services, operating under well-known brands like Avis and Budget....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential to assess how well Avis is recovering from previous downturns and adapting to market conditions.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CAR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1654.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.40%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Avis reported an EPS of -$8.01, which was worse than the estimated -$6.83, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market. The stock reacted slightly negatively, dropping 0.47% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Avis can demonstrate improved rental volumes and better-than-expected EPS, it could signal a strong recovery in consumer travel and spending, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another significant loss or fails to show improvement in rental demand, it could further erode investor confidence and lead to a sharp decline in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected rental volume for the upcoming quarter?

This metric will indicate consumer demand and operational recovery, which are critical for assessing the company's future performance.

How does management plan to address the recent EPS losses?

Investors will be looking for concrete plans or strategies to improve profitability and reduce losses moving forward.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in rental demand as travel restrictions ease, leading to a stronger-than-expected performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders are anticipating volatility that may not align with consensus expectations.

The recent historical trend shows that Avis has often surprised investors, indicating potential for a positive outcome despite recent losses.

Key Risk

If rental volume exceeds expectations significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Avis can turn around its recent performance and regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

A rental volume increase of at least 15% compared to the previous quarter would confirm a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$8.00 would confirm ongoing struggles and could lead to further declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.8%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 7.8%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.8% while CAR has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

257.9%

Calls (937K)P/C Ratio: 0.26Puts (922K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Avis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.47%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their expectations.

Miss

If Avis misses again, the stock could drop, with historical patterns indicating an average decline of around 0.29%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on rental volume trends compared to previous quarters.
2Management's strategy for improving profitability in light of recent losses.
3Insights into consumer travel behavior and demand forecasts.
4Details on cost management and operational efficiencies.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the vehicle rental market.