Equity Profile

CARR

Carrier Global Corporation

IndustrialsBuilding Products$55.8B

Apr30Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:00 AM EDT

Carrier Global Corporation Beats on EPS, Stock Up 8.79%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.57	$0.51	+12.87%
Revenue	N/A	$5.0B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Carrier Global Corporation Beats on EPS, Stock Up 8.79%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.57	$0.51	+12.87%
Revenue	N/A	$5.0B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Carrier Global's strong EPS performance, exceeding expectations, contributed to an 8.79% increase in stock price. However, the lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the overall business outlook. Investors may view the earnings beat positively, but the absence of guidance could lead to cautious sentiment moving forward.

Company Snapshot

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is a leading provider of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, along with refrigeration solutions. As part of the industrials sector, the company plays a crucial role in building products that enhance energy efficiency and sustainability, which are increasingly important themes in today's market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

0.51

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is essential for understanding growth potential.

5.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.29%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Carrier reported an EPS of $0.34, missing expectations of $0.36, which led to a slight decline in stock price the following day. The company has shown mixed performance over the past quarters, with some beats and misses.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Carrier's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest improvement in EPS and revenue compared to previous quarters. However, the recent earnings miss has raised concerns about the company's ability to meet growth targets.

Bull Case

If Carrier can exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal strong operational efficiency and demand for its products, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

A continued trend of earnings misses could indicate deeper issues within the company, such as rising costs or declining market share, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.51

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

5.0B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is essential for understanding growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.51?

A beat on EPS would indicate improved profitability and could boost investor confidence after the recent earnings miss.

What are the revenue figures relative to the $5.0B consensus?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand and growth prospects, especially in light of previous misses.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating Carrier's ability to rebound from recent earnings challenges, as the company's focus on energy-efficient solutions positions it well in a growing market.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 6.64% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's fundamentals.

Carrier's historical performance shows a 75% EPS beat rate, suggesting that the company often exceeds expectations.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS above $0.52, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Carrier's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses and demonstrate solid growth.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.52 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would signal ongoing challenges and could lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.64%

Historical Avg

±5.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.6% while CARR has averaged ±5.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (245K)P/C Ratio: 0.37Puts (28K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.8%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carrier beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.27%, confirming a positive operational trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about -4.76%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-WARick LarsenRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies that could impact margins.
2Insights into demand trends for HVAC products in key markets.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Details on any new product launches or innovations.
5Comments on competitive pressures and market share.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

0.51

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is essential for understanding growth potential.

5.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.29%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Carrier can exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal strong operational efficiency and demand for its products, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

A continued trend of earnings misses could indicate deeper issues within the company, such as rising costs or declining market share, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.51

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

5.0B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is essential for understanding growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.51?

A beat on EPS would indicate improved profitability and could boost investor confidence after the recent earnings miss.

What are the revenue figures relative to the $5.0B consensus?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand and growth prospects, especially in light of previous misses.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating Carrier's ability to rebound from recent earnings challenges, as the company's focus on energy-efficient solutions positions it well in a growing market.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 6.64% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's fundamentals.

Carrier's historical performance shows a 75% EPS beat rate, suggesting that the company often exceeds expectations.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS above $0.52, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Carrier's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses and demonstrate solid growth.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.52 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would signal ongoing challenges and could lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.64%

Historical Avg

±5.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.6% while CARR has averaged ±5.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (245K)P/C Ratio: 0.37Puts (28K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carrier beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.27%, confirming a positive operational trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about -4.76%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-WARick LarsenRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies that could impact margins.
2Insights into demand trends for HVAC products in key markets.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Details on any new product launches or innovations.
5Comments on competitive pressures and market share.