Industrials·Building Products·$50.9B
Carrier Global Corp (CARR) is a leading provider of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, as well as refrigeration solutions. Operating in the industrials sector, the company plays a crucial role in the building products industry, focusing on energy-efficient and sustainable solutions that are increasingly important in today's climate-conscious market.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.33%
Avg Stock Reaction
-0.24%
In Q4-2025, Carrier reported an EPS of $0.34, falling short of the expected $0.36, which resulted in a slight decline in stock price the following day. The company continues to face challenges in meeting analyst expectations.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Carrier to report an EPS of $0.51 and revenue of $5.0 billion for Q1-2026, reflecting cautious optimism about recovery in demand. The market is closely watching how the company navigates ongoing supply chain issues and inflationary pressures.
Bull Case
If Carrier can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it may signal a robust recovery in demand, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its ability to manage costs and sustain growth, leading to a negative market response.
EPS
0.51Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
5.0BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will Carrier report an EPS above $0.51?
A beat on EPS would indicate stronger profitability and could boost investor confidence, especially after a recent miss.
Q2
What guidance will Carrier provide for revenue growth?
Clear guidance on revenue growth will be crucial for assessing the company's outlook amidst ongoing economic challenges.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Carrier's ability to recover from supply chain issues, especially given recent improvements in operational efficiency.
Supporting Evidence
Carrier has historically beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time, indicating potential for positive surprises.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.
Recent trends in the HVAC market show increased demand for energy-efficient solutions, which could benefit Carrier.
Key Risk
If Carrier's revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could invalidate the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a recent earnings miss, and market expectations are cautiously optimistic.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.52 or higher with revenue exceeding $5.1 billion would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.50 or revenue below $4.9 billion would confirm the bear case.
Implied Move
±11.18%
Historical Avg
±5.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.6% while CARR has averaged ±5.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Carrier beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.27% the next day, confirming a positive trend.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 4.76% in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
VERIZON COMMUNICATIO
Apr 27, 2026