Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Apr 30, 2026
EPS actual
$0.57
EPS est.
$0.51
EPS surprise
+12.87%
1-day move
+8.79%
Carrier Global's strong EPS performance, exceeding expectations, contributed to an 8.79% increase in stock price. However, the lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the overall business outlook. Investors may view the earnings beat positively, but the absence of guidance could lead to cautious sentiment moving forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.57 | $0.51 | +12.87% |
| Revenue | N/A | $5.0B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is a leading provider of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, along with refrigeration solutions. As part of the industrials sector, the company plays a crucial role in building products that enhance energy efficiency and sustainability, which are increasingly important themes in today's market.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Carrier reported an EPS of $0.34, missing expectations of $0.36, which led to a slight decline in stock price the following day. The company has shown mixed performance over the past quarters, with some beats and misses.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+5.94%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.18%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Carrier's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest improvement in EPS and revenue compared to previous quarters. However, the recent earnings miss has raised concerns about the company's ability to meet growth targets.
Bull case
If Carrier can exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal strong operational efficiency and demand for its products, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
A continued trend of earnings misses could indicate deeper issues within the company, such as rising costs or declining market share, leading to a negative reaction from investors.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.51Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
5.0BTotal revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is essential for understanding growth potential.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.51?
A beat on EPS would indicate improved profitability and could boost investor confidence after the recent earnings miss.
Q2
What are the revenue figures relative to the $5.0B consensus?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand and growth prospects, especially in light of previous misses.
—
Est. EPS
$4.27
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±8.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating Carrier's ability to rebound from recent earnings challenges, as the company's focus on energy-efficient solutions positions it well in a growing market.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 6.64% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's fundamentals.
Carrier's historical performance shows a 75% EPS beat rate, suggesting that the company often exceeds expectations.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS above $0.52, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching Carrier's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses and demonstrate solid growth.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.52 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.50 would signal ongoing challenges and could lead to a significant drop in stock price.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.64%
Historical Avg
±6.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±6.6% while CARR has averaged ±6.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
40.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.8%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
89.86%
of float
Insider
4.76%
of float
Holders
2,116
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Capital Research Global Investors
106,065,347 sh · $5.8B
12.87%
-8.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Carrier beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.27%, confirming a positive operational trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about -4.76%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
0 buys·3 sells
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$17,003.00–$80,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
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8.15%
16.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
51,284,274 sh · $2.8B
6.22%
-0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
36,565,910 sh · $2.0B
4.44%
0.1%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
34,487,524 sh · $1.9B
4.18%
-1.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 14, 2026 · disclosed Sep 1, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 28, 2026 · disclosed Aug 7, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jul 28, 2026 · disclosed Aug 7, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.