Post-earnings recap
Reported
Fri, May 1, 2026
EPS actual
$3.70
EPS est.
$3.37
EPS surprise
+9.86%
1-day move
+8.95%
Cboe Global Markets reported stronger-than-expected earnings per share, which contributed to a significant stock price increase of 8.95%. The positive EPS surprise indicates better profitability than analysts anticipated. However, the lack of revenue data and guidance leaves some uncertainty about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $3.70 | $3.37 | +9.86% |
| Revenue | N/A | $709M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. operates in the financial sector, primarily focusing on financial exchanges and data. As a major player in the trading industry, it provides a platform for trading various financial instruments, which is crucial for market liquidity and price discovery.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Cboe reported an EPS of $3.06, exceeding expectations by 4.51%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 0.70% the following day.
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+4.33%
Avg 1-day reaction
+2.76%
Analysts anticipate a solid performance from Cboe in Q1-2026, with expectations for both EPS and revenue to meet or exceed consensus estimates.
Bull case
If Cboe's trading volumes increase significantly, it could lead to higher revenues and profits, driving the stock price up.
Bear case
Conversely, if market volatility decreases, trading volumes may decline, negatively impacting revenue and earnings.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$3.37Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance relative to analysts' expectations.
Revenue
$709MTotal revenue reflects the overall business activity and growth, which is vital for assessing the company's financial health.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Cboe's trading volumes exceed expectations, particularly in light of recent market conditions?
Higher trading volumes are crucial for revenue growth, and any significant change could impact the stock's performance.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding future market volatility and its impact on trading activity?
Management's outlook on market conditions will be key to understanding potential revenue trends moving forward.
—
Est. EPS
$0.16
Est. Rev
$206M
Impl. Move
±16.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent market volatility on trading volumes, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings.
Supporting evidence
Cboe has a history of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate over the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests higher volatility expectations, which could drive increased trading activity.
Recent trends in market activity indicate a potential uptick in trading volumes that may not be fully reflected in consensus estimates.
Key risk
If trading volumes significantly decline due to reduced market volatility, it could lead to lower-than-expected revenue.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching how Cboe navigates current market conditions and whether it can sustain growth in trading activity.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $3.40 or higher, indicating strong trading volumes and profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $3.29, suggesting weaker performance than anticipated.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.21%
Historical Avg
±3.4%
The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.21%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±3.2% while CBOE has averaged ±3.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
25.8%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
91.32%
of float
Insider
0.25%
of float
Holders
1,428
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
10,198,207 sh · $2.9B
9.14%
-3.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Cboe beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.00%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could result in a decline of about 2.01%, reflecting disappointment in the company's performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
Senate only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
6,835,070 sh · $1.9B
6.12%
0.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
5,257,741 sh · $1.5B
4.71%
0.3%
State Street Corporation
5,046,590 sh · $1.4B
4.52%
1.4%
FMR, LLC
4,307,122 sh · $1.2B
3.86%
-8.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 31, 2026 · disclosed Aug 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.