Equity Profile

CG

The Carlyle Group Inc.

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$15.7B

May6Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close5:49 PM EDT

The Carlyle Group Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.96%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.37	$0.93	-140.53%
Revenue	—	$900M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

The Carlyle Group Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.96%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.37	$0.93	-140.53%
Revenue	—	$900M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

The Carlyle Group's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which likely contributed to the stock's decline of 0.96%. The lack of revenue data further adds uncertainty about the company's financial health. Investors may be cautious moving forward given the substantial earnings surprise.

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor returns.

0.93

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its investments.

900M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $18 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in managing investments across various asset classes.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Carlyle reported an EPS of $0.96, which was below the expected $1.01, resulting in a stock drop of 5.10% the following day. The company has faced challenges in meeting earnings expectations recently.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Carlyle's upcoming earnings, expecting EPS of $0.93 and revenue of $900 million. However, the company has a history of missing estimates, which raises concerns.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can exceed expectations, particularly in revenue, it could signal a turnaround in performance and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued misses on earnings and revenue could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in the company's growth potential.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.93

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor returns.

Revenue

900M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its investments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Carlyle's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.93?

Given the company's recent history of missing estimates, a beat could restore investor confidence.

What specific factors contributed to revenue expectations of $900 million?

Understanding revenue drivers is crucial for assessing future growth potential and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Carlyle's ability to capitalize on recent market opportunities, particularly in alternative investments.

Supporting Evidence

Carlyle's diversified investment strategy may yield better-than-expected results despite broader market challenges.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent trends in asset management suggest a rebound in investor sentiment that could benefit Carlyle.

Key Risk

If Carlyle's revenue exceeds $900 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it could indicate whether Carlyle can regain momentum or continue its recent trend of disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

Carlyle needs to report an EPS above $0.93 and revenue exceeding $900 million to confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.84 or revenue below $792 million would reinforce bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.9%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±9.4% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

35.5%

Calls (72K)P/C Ratio: 1.51Puts (22K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests the stock could react positively, potentially moving around +3.1% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a negative reaction, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about -3.64% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on investment performance in key sectors like private equity and real estate.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and how they plan to navigate potential challenges.
3Details on any new funds or investment strategies being launched.
4Insights into client demand and capital inflows, which could impact future revenue.
5Commentary on cost management and operational efficiency improvements.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor returns.

0.93

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its investments.

900M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Carlyle can exceed expectations, particularly in revenue, it could signal a turnaround in performance and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued misses on earnings and revenue could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in the company's growth potential.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.93

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor returns.

Revenue

900M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its investments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Carlyle's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.93?

Given the company's recent history of missing estimates, a beat could restore investor confidence.

What specific factors contributed to revenue expectations of $900 million?

Understanding revenue drivers is crucial for assessing future growth potential and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Carlyle's ability to capitalize on recent market opportunities, particularly in alternative investments.

Supporting Evidence

Carlyle's diversified investment strategy may yield better-than-expected results despite broader market challenges.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent trends in asset management suggest a rebound in investor sentiment that could benefit Carlyle.

Key Risk

If Carlyle's revenue exceeds $900 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it could indicate whether Carlyle can regain momentum or continue its recent trend of disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

Carlyle needs to report an EPS above $0.93 and revenue exceeding $900 million to confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.84 or revenue below $792 million would reinforce bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.9%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±9.4% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

35.5%

Calls (72K)P/C Ratio: 1.51Puts (22K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests the stock could react positively, potentially moving around +3.1% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a negative reaction, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about -3.64% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on investment performance in key sectors like private equity and real estate.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and how they plan to navigate potential challenges.
3Details on any new funds or investment strategies being launched.
4Insights into client demand and capital inflows, which could impact future revenue.
5Commentary on cost management and operational efficiency improvements.