Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.37
EPS est.
$0.91
EPS surprise
-140.53%
1-day move
-0.96%
The Carlyle Group's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which likely contributed to the stock's decline of 0.96%. The lack of revenue data further adds uncertainty about the company's financial health. Investors may be cautious moving forward given the substantial earnings surprise.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.37 | $0.93 | -140.53% |
| Revenue | — | $900M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $18 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in managing investments across various asset classes.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Carlyle reported an EPS of $0.96, which was below the expected $1.01, resulting in a stock drop of 5.10% the following day. The company has faced challenges in meeting earnings expectations recently.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
13%
Avg EPS surprise
-38.23%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.29%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Carlyle's upcoming earnings, expecting EPS of $0.93 and revenue of $900 million. However, the company has a history of missing estimates, which raises concerns.
Bull case
If Carlyle can exceed expectations, particularly in revenue, it could signal a turnaround in performance and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Continued misses on earnings and revenue could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in the company's growth potential.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.93Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor returns.
Revenue
900MTotal revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its investments.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Carlyle's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.93?
Given the company's recent history of missing estimates, a beat could restore investor confidence.
Q2
What specific factors contributed to revenue expectations of $900 million?
Understanding revenue drivers is crucial for assessing future growth potential and market positioning.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Carlyle's ability to capitalize on recent market opportunities, particularly in alternative investments.
Supporting evidence
Carlyle's diversified investment strategy may yield better-than-expected results despite broader market challenges.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.
Recent trends in asset management suggest a rebound in investor sentiment that could benefit Carlyle.
Key risk
If Carlyle's revenue exceeds $900 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it could indicate whether Carlyle can regain momentum or continue its recent trend of disappointing results.
Bull confirmed if
Carlyle needs to report an EPS above $0.93 and revenue exceeding $900 million to confirm a bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.84 or revenue below $792 million would reinforce bearish sentiment.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.9%
Historical Avg
±2.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing ±9.4% while CG has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
35.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
64.84%
of float
Insider
26.42%
of float
Holders
816
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
31,984,053 sh · $1.2B
8.98%
3.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests the stock could react positively, potentially moving around +3.1% on the first day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a negative reaction, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about -3.64% following such outcomes.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Harris Associates L.P.
17,661,625 sh · $667.6M
4.96%
6.5%
Capital World Investors
11,813,798 sh · $446.6M
3.32%
-33.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
11,830,112 sh · $447.2M
3.32%
0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
11,464,474 sh · $433.4M
3.22%
0.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.