Equity Profile

CG

The Carlyle Group Inc.

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$18.3B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM is crucial as it indicates the scale of Carlyle's operations and its ability to generate management fees.

N/A

Management Fees

Management fees are a primary revenue source for Carlyle, reflecting the firm's success in attracting and retaining clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $18 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, managing a diverse portfolio across various industries and geographies.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.37, missing estimates by a significant margin. This disappointing performance led to a 0.96% drop in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautious ahead of Carlyle's Q2 earnings, especially after a series of earnings misses. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of recovery in performance fees and management fees.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can demonstrate a rebound in AUM and management fees, it could signal a positive turnaround, leading to increased investor confidence and stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Continued underperformance in earnings and fees could raise concerns about the firm's ability to navigate challenging market conditions, potentially leading to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the updated AUM figures reveal about Carlyle's market position?

AUM is a key indicator of the firm's health and ability to generate revenue, making it critical for investor confidence.

How have management fees and performance fees changed compared to last quarter?

These fees directly impact profitability and will indicate whether Carlyle is effectively managing its investments.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Carlyle's ability to recover from its recent performance issues, particularly if AUM shows unexpected growth.

Supporting Evidence

Carlyle's historical ability to rebound from earnings misses suggests potential for a surprise this quarter.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent trends in asset management suggest a recovery in investor sentiment that could benefit Carlyle.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently skeptical about Carlyle's ability to recover from recent earnings misses, making these metrics crucial for future performance.

Bull Confirmed If

AUM growth of 5% or more quarter-over-quarter would indicate strong demand for Carlyle's services.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in management fees by more than 10% would raise serious concerns about the firm's revenue stability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.04%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.55%, confirming a positive turnaround in performance.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious but in-line report may lead to muted stock movement, as investors await clearer signs of recovery.

Miss

If Carlyle misses again, the stock could drop by an average of 2.55%, reinforcing concerns about its operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on AUM and any changes in client inflows or outflows.
2Details on management and performance fees compared to previous quarters.
3Any commentary on market conditions affecting investment strategies.
4Insights into how Carlyle plans to navigate current economic challenges.
5Management's outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.

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Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM is crucial as it indicates the scale of Carlyle's operations and its ability to generate management fees.

N/A

Management Fees

Management fees are a primary revenue source for Carlyle, reflecting the firm's success in attracting and retaining clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.37, missing estimates by a significant margin. This disappointing performance led to a 0.96% drop in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Carlyle can demonstrate a rebound in AUM and management fees, it could signal a positive turnaround, leading to increased investor confidence and stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Continued underperformance in earnings and fees could raise concerns about the firm's ability to navigate challenging market conditions, potentially leading to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the updated AUM figures reveal about Carlyle's market position?

AUM is a key indicator of the firm's health and ability to generate revenue, making it critical for investor confidence.

How have management fees and performance fees changed compared to last quarter?

These fees directly impact profitability and will indicate whether Carlyle is effectively managing its investments.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Carlyle's ability to recover from its recent performance issues, particularly if AUM shows unexpected growth.

Supporting Evidence

Carlyle's historical ability to rebound from earnings misses suggests potential for a surprise this quarter.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent trends in asset management suggest a recovery in investor sentiment that could benefit Carlyle.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently skeptical about Carlyle's ability to recover from recent earnings misses, making these metrics crucial for future performance.

Bull Confirmed If

AUM growth of 5% or more quarter-over-quarter would indicate strong demand for Carlyle's services.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in management fees by more than 10% would raise serious concerns about the firm's revenue stability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.04%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.55%, confirming a positive turnaround in performance.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious but in-line report may lead to muted stock movement, as investors await clearer signs of recovery.

Miss

If Carlyle misses again, the stock could drop by an average of 2.55%, reinforcing concerns about its operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on AUM and any changes in client inflows or outflows.
2Details on management and performance fees compared to previous quarters.
3Any commentary on market conditions affecting investment strategies.
4Insights into how Carlyle plans to navigate current economic challenges.
5Management's outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.