Equity Profile

CG

The Carlyle Group Inc.

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$15.7B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM is crucial as it reflects the total capital managed by Carlyle, indicating its growth and market position.

Expected to show stable growth.

Management Fees

Management fees are a primary revenue source, and any changes could significantly impact profitability.

Expected to remain consistent with previous quarters.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $17 billion, it plays a significant role in managing investments across various sectors, which makes it a key player in the financial services industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an EPS of -$0.37, significantly missing the estimate of $0.91. This marked a continuation of disappointing earnings results.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving investment performance.
Commitment to enhancing operational efficiency.
Plans to diversify investment strategies.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Carlyle has struggled with earnings misses in recent quarters. Investors are cautious but hopeful for a turnaround.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can demonstrate improved management and performance fees, it could signal a positive shift in its financial health.

Bear Case

Continued earnings misses could lead to further declines in investor confidence and stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

Expected to show stable growth.

AUM is crucial as it reflects the total capital managed by Carlyle, indicating its growth and market position.

Management Fees

Expected to remain consistent with previous quarters.

Management fees are a primary revenue source, and any changes could significantly impact profitability.

Performance Fees

Expected to see a moderate increase.

Performance fees can fluctuate based on investment performance, affecting overall revenue.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current AUM and how does it compare to previous quarters?

AUM is a key indicator of growth and investor confidence, and any significant changes could impact stock performance.

What are the expectations for performance fees this quarter?

Performance fees directly affect revenue and profitability, making this a critical focus area for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Carlyle's ability to rebound from recent performance issues, particularly if management successfully executes its operational improvements.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent insider activity could signal confidence in upcoming changes.

Carlyle's diversification strategy may mitigate risks that the market is currently overlooking.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing Carlyle's ability to recover from recent earnings misses against its potential for growth.

Bull Confirmed If

AUM growth of over 5% quarter-over-quarter would indicate strong investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in performance fees below 10% could confirm ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.37%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.7%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line, the stock may remain flat as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.55%, further eroding investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on AUM growth and investor sentiment.
2Details on management and performance fees.
3Any commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
4Insights into new investment strategies being pursued.
5Management's outlook for the next quarter.

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Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM is crucial as it reflects the total capital managed by Carlyle, indicating its growth and market position.

Expected to show stable growth.

Management Fees

Management fees are a primary revenue source, and any changes could significantly impact profitability.

Expected to remain consistent with previous quarters.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an EPS of -$0.37, significantly missing the estimate of $0.91. This marked a continuation of disappointing earnings results.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving investment performance.
Commitment to enhancing operational efficiency.
Plans to diversify investment strategies.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Carlyle has struggled with earnings misses in recent quarters. Investors are cautious but hopeful for a turnaround.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can demonstrate improved management and performance fees, it could signal a positive shift in its financial health.

Bear Case

Continued earnings misses could lead to further declines in investor confidence and stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

Expected to show stable growth.

AUM is crucial as it reflects the total capital managed by Carlyle, indicating its growth and market position.

Management Fees

Expected to remain consistent with previous quarters.

Management fees are a primary revenue source, and any changes could significantly impact profitability.

Performance Fees

Expected to see a moderate increase.

Performance fees can fluctuate based on investment performance, affecting overall revenue.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current AUM and how does it compare to previous quarters?

AUM is a key indicator of growth and investor confidence, and any significant changes could impact stock performance.

What are the expectations for performance fees this quarter?

Performance fees directly affect revenue and profitability, making this a critical focus area for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Carlyle's ability to rebound from recent performance issues, particularly if management successfully executes its operational improvements.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent insider activity could signal confidence in upcoming changes.

Carlyle's diversification strategy may mitigate risks that the market is currently overlooking.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing Carlyle's ability to recover from recent earnings misses against its potential for growth.

Bull Confirmed If

AUM growth of over 5% quarter-over-quarter would indicate strong investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in performance fees below 10% could confirm ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.37%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.7%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line, the stock may remain flat as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.55%, further eroding investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on AUM growth and investor sentiment.
2Details on management and performance fees.
3Any commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
4Insights into new investment strategies being pursued.
5Management's outlook for the next quarter.