Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Aug 4, 2026
EPS actual
$0.37
EPS est.
$0.88
EPS surprise
-58.14%
1-day move
+3.54%
The Carlyle Group reported an EPS of $0.37, significantly missing expectations, which typically raises concerns about profitability. However, the stock reacted positively, increasing by 3.54%, indicating that investors may have had lower expectations or are optimistic about future performance despite the miss. The lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the company's current standing.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.37 | N/A | -58.14% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±12.7%
The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $18 billion, it plays a significant role in managing investments across various sectors, which is crucial for investors looking for exposure to diverse financial markets.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.37, missing estimates by a significant margin. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.96% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
13%
Avg EPS surprise
-38.23%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.29%
Analysts are cautious ahead of the earnings report, given the recent history of EPS misses. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in management fees and AUM growth.
Bull case
If Carlyle can demonstrate strong AUM growth and improved management fees, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Continued underperformance in key metrics could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in the firm's growth strategy.
Key metrics to watch
Assets Under Management (AUM)
Expected to show growth reflecting increased investor interest.AUM is a key indicator of the firm's ability to generate revenue from management fees.
Management Fees
Expected to stabilize or increase slightly.Management fees directly impact revenue and profitability, making it essential to monitor this metric.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the reported AUM for Q2-2026?
AUM growth is critical for revenue generation, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.
Q2
How have management fees changed compared to the previous quarter?
Management fees are a primary source of revenue, and understanding their trajectory will be key to assessing the firm's financial health.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Carlyle's ability to rebound in AUM due to strategic investments that have not yet reflected in earnings.
Supporting evidence
Recent market trends suggest a recovery in investor confidence that could boost AUM.
The options market indicates significant volatility, hinting at potential surprises.
Carlyle's diversification strategy may yield better-than-expected results in performance fees.
Key risk
If AUM growth exceeds $10 billion, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on the firm's ability to manage assets effectively and generate consistent revenue.
Bull confirmed if
AUM growth exceeding $10 billion would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A decline in management fees below $200 million would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±19.04%
Historical Avg
±2.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.
Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
33.9%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
64.84%
of float
Insider
26.42%
of float
Holders
816
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
31,984,053 sh · $1.2B
8.98%
3.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.7%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious, the stock may experience minimal movement as investors digest the commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.55%, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Performance Fees
Expected to be lower due to recent market volatility.Performance fees can significantly boost earnings, particularly in a strong market environment.
Harris Associates L.P.
17,661,625 sh · $667.6M
4.96%
6.5%
Capital World Investors
11,813,798 sh · $446.6M
3.32%
-33.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
11,830,112 sh · $447.2M
3.32%
0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
11,464,474 sh · $433.4M
3.22%
0.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.