Equity Profile

CG

The Carlyle Group Inc.

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$15.9B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM is a key indicator of the firm's size and growth potential, reflecting investor confidence and market conditions.

N/A

Management Fees

Management fees are a primary revenue source for asset management firms, directly impacting profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $16 billion, it plays a significant role in managing investments across various sectors, which is crucial for understanding trends in financial markets.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an EPS of -$0.37, missing expectations by a significant margin. The stock reacted negatively, declining 0.96% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

There is uncertainty surrounding Carlyle's upcoming earnings, especially after a series of earnings misses. Investors are cautious about the firm's ability to recover.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can show improved performance fees and a rebound in AUM, it could signal a turnaround, leading to positive stock movement.

Bear Case

Continued losses or further declines in AUM could lead to a significant drop in stock price, as investor confidence wanes.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current level of Assets Under Management (AUM)?

AUM will indicate the firm's market position and investor confidence, crucial for future revenue generation.

How did performance fees change compared to the previous quarter?

Changes in performance fees can significantly impact earnings and reflect the firm's investment success.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Carlyle's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, as the firm has a strong track record of recovering from downturns.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent losses, Carlyle has historically shown resilience in asset management.

The options market indicates a high level of expected volatility, suggesting that traders are anticipating significant news.

Carlyle's diverse investment portfolio may provide stability even in uncertain markets.

Key Risk

If AUM shows unexpected growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is critical as it will reveal how well Carlyle is managing its assets and generating revenue in a challenging market.

Bull Confirmed If

AUM growth of 5% or more compared to the last quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in AUM or performance fees below previous levels would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.04%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.67%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results come in line with expectations, the stock may remain flat or see a modest reaction as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

If Carlyle misses again, history suggests a decline of about 2.55%, further eroding investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on Assets Under Management (AUM) and any changes in investor sentiment.
2Details on performance fees and how they compare to previous quarters.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and potential growth areas.
4Any strategic initiatives that may impact future earnings.
5Insights into cost management and operational efficiency.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) is a global investment firm specializing in asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM is a key indicator of the firm's size and growth potential, reflecting investor confidence and market conditions.

N/A

Management Fees

Management fees are a primary revenue source for asset management firms, directly impacting profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Carlyle reported an EPS of -$0.37, missing expectations by a significant margin. The stock reacted negatively, declining 0.96% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

There is uncertainty surrounding Carlyle's upcoming earnings, especially after a series of earnings misses. Investors are cautious about the firm's ability to recover.

Bull Case

If Carlyle can show improved performance fees and a rebound in AUM, it could signal a turnaround, leading to positive stock movement.

Bear Case

Continued losses or further declines in AUM could lead to a significant drop in stock price, as investor confidence wanes.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current level of Assets Under Management (AUM)?

AUM will indicate the firm's market position and investor confidence, crucial for future revenue generation.

How did performance fees change compared to the previous quarter?

Changes in performance fees can significantly impact earnings and reflect the firm's investment success.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Carlyle's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, as the firm has a strong track record of recovering from downturns.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent losses, Carlyle has historically shown resilience in asset management.

The options market indicates a high level of expected volatility, suggesting that traders are anticipating significant news.

Carlyle's diverse investment portfolio may provide stability even in uncertain markets.

Key Risk

If AUM shows unexpected growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is critical as it will reveal how well Carlyle is managing its assets and generating revenue in a challenging market.

Bull Confirmed If

AUM growth of 5% or more compared to the last quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in AUM or performance fees below previous levels would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.04%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while CG has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.9%

Calls (118K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (408K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carlyle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.67%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results come in line with expectations, the stock may remain flat or see a modest reaction as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

If Carlyle misses again, history suggests a decline of about 2.55%, further eroding investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on Assets Under Management (AUM) and any changes in investor sentiment.
2Details on performance fees and how they compare to previous quarters.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and potential growth areas.
4Any strategic initiatives that may impact future earnings.
5Insights into cost management and operational efficiency.