Post-earnings recap
Reported
Fri, May 1, 2026
EPS actual
$0.95
EPS est.
$0.93
EPS surprise
+1.71%
1-day move
-1.07%
Church & Dwight's earnings report showed a slight beat on EPS, which may indicate better-than-expected profitability. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.07%. The lack of revenue data and guidance updates may have contributed to investor uncertainty.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.95 | $0.93 | +1.71% |
| Revenue | N/A | $1.5B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. is a leading consumer staples company known for its household products, including well-known brands like Arm & Hammer. With a market cap of $23 billion, it plays a significant role in the consumer goods sector, which is influenced by trends in consumer spending and brand loyalty.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Church & Dwight reported an EPS of $0.86, beating expectations by 2.75%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 4.67% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+5.38%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.07%
Analysts expect Church & Dwight to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, with a consensus EPS of $0.93 for Q1-2026. Investors are looking for signs of strong revenue growth amid a competitive market.
Bull case
If the company can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate robust demand for its products, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could signal underlying issues in sales or market share, resulting in a negative stock response.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.93Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$1.5BTotal revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Church & Dwight's revenue meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $1.5 billion?
Revenue performance is crucial for understanding market demand and the company's growth trajectory, especially in a competitive landscape.
Q2
Can the company maintain or improve its EPS above the consensus of $0.93?
A strong EPS not only reflects profitability but also impacts investor sentiment and stock performance.
Est. EPS
$0.81
Est. Rev
$12.2B
Impl. Move
±3.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Church & Dwight to exceed its EPS and revenue targets due to strong brand loyalty and market demand.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, with a 100% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a larger than average move, indicating that traders expect significant volatility and potential upside.
Key risk
If revenue comes in below $1.4 billion, it could undermine the bullish sentiment and lead to a reassessment of growth prospects.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will indicate whether the company can sustain its growth momentum amidst market challenges.
Bull confirmed if
Exceeding $1.5 billion in revenue and achieving an EPS of $0.95 or higher would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
Falling short of the $0.93 EPS estimate or reporting revenue below $1.4 billion would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.4%
Historical Avg
±3.4%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 4.4% following the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.
Options are pricing a larger move than the stock has historically averaged, indicating heightened expectations.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
18.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples
Fade rate: 10 of 28 (36%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 18 of 28 (64%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.3%, with a raw directional average of +1.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
94.80%
of float
Insider
0.20%
of float
Holders
1,475
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
22,445,656 sh · $2.2B
9.46%
1.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Church & Dwight beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.83%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical data indicating an average drop of around 0.0% following misses.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
15,505,024 sh · $1.5B
6.54%
0.6%
State Street Corporation
14,048,326 sh · $1.4B
5.92%
0.3%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
13,159,991 sh · $1.3B
5.55%
1.7%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
9,140,532 sh · $884.3M
3.85%
-12.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.