Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$1.61
EPS est.
$1.53
EPS surprise
+4.95%
1-day move
+2.60%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) is a leading logistics company that provides freight transportation and logistics solutions. Operating in the industrials sector, it plays a crucial role in global supply chains, making it sensitive to trends in consumer spending and trade dynamics.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, C.H. Robinson reported an EPS of $1.35, exceeding expectations by 8.43%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 0.81% the following day.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+9.66%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.45%
Overall, expectations for C.H. Robinson's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. The market is likely watching closely for any signs of revenue growth and profitability.
Bull case
The optimistic view hinges on continued strong demand for logistics services, which could lead to better-than-expected revenue and EPS growth.
Bear case
Conversely, a slowdown in consumer spending or increased competition could negatively impact revenue and margins, leading to disappointing results.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the revenue growth rate be this quarter?
Revenue growth is critical for C.H. Robinson, as it indicates the company's ability to adapt to market conditions and demand.
Q2
How are margins holding up in the current economic environment?
Margins will reveal how well the company is managing costs amidst potential inflationary pressures and competition.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for C.H. Robinson to capitalize on increased demand for logistics services, particularly in light of ongoing supply chain challenges.
Supporting evidence
C.H. Robinson has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.
The options market is pricing in a relatively modest move, suggesting that investors may not fully appreciate the company's growth potential.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment around the stock.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on C.H. Robinson's ability to navigate economic challenges while maintaining growth.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth of at least 5% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A revenue decline or flat growth would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±2.57%
Historical Avg
±1.6%
The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 2.57%, suggesting that investors anticipate some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±2.6% while CHRW has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
41.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +1.9% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
106.40%
of float
Insider
0.35%
of float
Holders
1,264
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
11,373,312 sh · $1.5B
9.73%
13.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If C.H. Robinson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.09%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.34%, indicating market disappointment.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
17
13 buys·4 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$172,017.00–$630,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
17 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
7,503,056 sh · $1.0B
6.42%
-2.6%
State Street Corporation
6,502,365 sh · $879.0M
5.56%
0.9%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
5,919,932 sh · $800.3M
5.07%
-1.1%
FMR, LLC
3,737,396 sh · $505.2M
3.20%
-14.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 25, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$100,001.00–$250,000.00
Traded Aug 14, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 12, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 5, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 3, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.