Equity Profile

CLF

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.

MaterialsSteel$5.5B

Jul20Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, primarily serving the automotive and construction industries....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

$-0.20

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, primarily serving the automotive and construction industries. As a key player in the materials sector, its performance is closely tied to demand in these sectors and broader economic trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Cleveland-Cliffs reported an EPS of $-0.40, which was better than analysts' expectations of $-0.44, resulting in a 9.5% surprise. However, the stock fell 2.11% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the positive surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Cleveland-Cliffs to report a loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.20. Revenue expectations are stable at $5.2 billion, reflecting cautious optimism about demand in the steel market.

Bull Case

If the company beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand and improved operational efficiency, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if Cleveland-Cliffs reports a larger loss than expected or lower revenue, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the steel market, leading to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.20

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

Revenue

$5.2B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Cleveland-Cliffs achieve an EPS better than the consensus estimate of $-0.20?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for investor confidence.

How does the company anticipate revenue growth in light of current market conditions?

Understanding revenue expectations will provide insight into demand trends in the steel industry and the company's ability to navigate them.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for Cleveland-Cliffs to recover, particularly if they can leverage recent operational improvements.

Supporting Evidence

The company has shown a pattern of beating EPS expectations in the past, which could indicate a trend of improving performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher volatility expectation, which may reflect investor sentiment that a significant move is possible.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS better than $-0.14, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched to see if the company can turn around its recent trend of losses and meet or exceed market expectations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-0.14 or better, with revenue exceeding $5.3 billion, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.27, coupled with revenue falling below $5.1 billion, would reinforce concerns about market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.8%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the steel market.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 2.02%, indicating continued challenges for the company.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management initiatives and their impact on profitability.
2Details on demand trends in the automotive and construction sectors.
3Insights into pricing strategies for steel products.
4Management's outlook on market conditions for the remainder of the year.
5Any commentary on potential operational improvements or challenges.

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Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading producer of steel and iron ore in North America, primarily serving the automotive and construction industries....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

$-0.20

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand and improved operational efficiency, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if Cleveland-Cliffs reports a larger loss than expected or lower revenue, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the steel market, leading to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.20

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

Revenue

$5.2B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Cleveland-Cliffs achieve an EPS better than the consensus estimate of $-0.20?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for investor confidence.

How does the company anticipate revenue growth in light of current market conditions?

Understanding revenue expectations will provide insight into demand trends in the steel industry and the company's ability to navigate them.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for Cleveland-Cliffs to recover, particularly if they can leverage recent operational improvements.

Supporting Evidence

The company has shown a pattern of beating EPS expectations in the past, which could indicate a trend of improving performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher volatility expectation, which may reflect investor sentiment that a significant move is possible.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS better than $-0.14, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched to see if the company can turn around its recent trend of losses and meet or exceed market expectations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-0.14 or better, with revenue exceeding $5.3 billion, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.27, coupled with revenue falling below $5.1 billion, would reinforce concerns about market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.8%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the steel market.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 2.02%, indicating continued challenges for the company.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management initiatives and their impact on profitability.
2Details on demand trends in the automotive and construction sectors.
3Insights into pricing strategies for steel products.
4Management's outlook on market conditions for the remainder of the year.
5Any commentary on potential operational improvements or challenges.