Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.20
EPS est.
$-0.21
EPS surprise
+4.76%
1-day move
+15.98%
Cleveland-Cliffs reported an EPS that met expectations, but revenue figures were not disclosed. The stock surged by nearly 16%, likely driven by investor optimism despite the revenue miss. The lack of guidance and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.20 | $-0.20 | +4.76% |
| Revenue | N/A | $5.2B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading player in the steel industry, primarily focused on producing iron ore and steel products. As a key supplier to various sectors, including automotive and construction, the company's performance is closely tied to trends in manufacturing and infrastructure spending.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs reported an EPS of $-0.40, which was better than analysts' expectations of $-0.44. However, the stock declined by 2.11% the following day, reflecting ongoing concerns about profitability.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-5.17%
Avg 1-day reaction
+3.37%
Analysts expect Cleveland-Cliffs to report a loss again this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.20. Revenue expectations are slightly more optimistic at $5.2 billion.
Bull case
If the company can beat expectations and show signs of recovery in demand, it could signal a turnaround, leading to positive market reactions.
Bear case
Continued losses or lower-than-expected revenue could raise concerns about the company's long-term viability, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.20Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability, and this quarter's consensus suggests a continued struggle with losses.
Revenue
$5.2BRevenue figures will provide insight into demand for steel products and overall market conditions.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Cleveland-Cliffs report an EPS better than the consensus estimate of $-0.20?
A smaller loss than expected could indicate improving operational efficiency and market conditions.
Q2
What does management say about revenue trends and demand for steel products?
Insights into demand will be crucial for understanding the company's growth prospects and market position.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for Cleveland-Cliffs to improve margins through cost-cutting measures and operational efficiencies.
Supporting evidence
The company has a history of surprising on EPS, with a 50% beat rate over the last several quarters.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders may expect more volatility than the consensus reflects.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS better than $-0.14, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Cleveland-Cliffs can stabilize its earnings and improve revenue amidst challenging industry conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $-0.14 or better would confirm a bullish outlook and suggest recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than $-0.27 would reinforce bearish sentiments about the company's future.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±18.16%
Historical Avg
±9.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±9.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
66.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.42%
of float
Insider
0.86%
of float
Holders
730
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
55,672,638 sh · $671.4M
9.76%
-5.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.8%, confirming a potential recovery narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 2.02%, reinforcing concerns about the company's profitability.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
State Street Corporation
33,248,516 sh · $401.0M
5.83%
-15.4%
Slate Path Capital, LP
28,410,081 sh · $342.6M
4.98%
47.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
25,796,291 sh · $311.1M
4.52%
0.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
25,187,723 sh · $303.8M
4.41%
0.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.