Equity Profile

CLF

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.

MaterialsSteel$6.9B

Jul20Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading provider of iron ore and steel products in the materials sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

-0.20

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading provider of iron ore and steel products in the materials sector. As a major player in the steel industry, it plays a crucial role in supplying materials for construction, automotive, and manufacturing sectors, which are vital for economic growth.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Cleveland-Cliffs reported an EPS of -0.40, which was better than analysts' expectations of -0.44, resulting in a positive surprise. However, the stock fell by 2.11% the following day, indicating mixed market sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting a challenging quarter for Cleveland-Cliffs, with a consensus EPS of -0.20 and revenue of $5.2 billion. The company has shown some ability to beat estimates in the past, but the overall market conditions remain uncertain.

Bull Case

If Cleveland-Cliffs can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal improved operational efficiency and demand for steel products, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about ongoing profitability issues and market demand, potentially leading to a further decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-0.20

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue

5.2B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Cleveland-Cliffs achieve an EPS better than the consensus estimate of -0.20?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which is critical for investor confidence.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter compared to the expected $5.2 billion?

Revenue performance will provide insight into market demand for steel products and the company's ability to capitalize on that demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be overly pessimistic about Cleveland-Cliffs' ability to manage costs and drive revenue growth, given recent operational improvements.

Supporting Evidence

The company has historically shown a 50% beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may reflect investor uncertainty rather than a clear bearish outlook.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS significantly better than -0.20, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Cleveland-Cliffs can turn around its recent performance and meet or exceed expectations in a challenging economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of -0.14 or better, coupled with revenue exceeding $5.3 billion, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -0.27, along with revenue below $5.1 billion, would reinforce concerns about ongoing profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move around the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of -0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.80%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to a muted response as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss estimates, history indicates a potential decline of about 2.02%, reflecting ongoing concerns about profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiency improvements and cost management strategies.
2Details on demand trends for steel products in key markets.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Insights into any changes in production capacity or supply chain challenges.
5Comments on pricing strategies and how they affect margins.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading provider of iron ore and steel products in the materials sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

-0.20

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+465.06%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.41%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Cleveland-Cliffs can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal improved operational efficiency and demand for steel products, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about ongoing profitability issues and market demand, potentially leading to a further decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-0.20

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue

5.2B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Cleveland-Cliffs achieve an EPS better than the consensus estimate of -0.20?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which is critical for investor confidence.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter compared to the expected $5.2 billion?

Revenue performance will provide insight into market demand for steel products and the company's ability to capitalize on that demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be overly pessimistic about Cleveland-Cliffs' ability to manage costs and drive revenue growth, given recent operational improvements.

Supporting Evidence

The company has historically shown a 50% beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may reflect investor uncertainty rather than a clear bearish outlook.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS significantly better than -0.20, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Cleveland-Cliffs can turn around its recent performance and meet or exceed expectations in a challenging economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of -0.14 or better, coupled with revenue exceeding $5.3 billion, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -0.27, along with revenue below $5.1 billion, would reinforce concerns about ongoing profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.16%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move around the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±18.2% while CLF has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (6.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.15Puts (945K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.80%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to a muted response as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss estimates, history indicates a potential decline of about 2.02%, reflecting ongoing concerns about profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiency improvements and cost management strategies.
2Details on demand trends for steel products in key markets.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Insights into any changes in production capacity or supply chain challenges.
5Comments on pricing strategies and how they affect margins.