Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Mon, Oct 19, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.24
Est. revenue
$5.7B
Implied move
±11.9%
EPS beat rate
50%
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a leading player in the steel industry, focusing on producing flat-rolled steel products and iron ore pellets. As a key supplier to various sectors, including automotive and construction, its performance is closely tied to trends in manufacturing and infrastructure spending.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs reported an EPS of -$0.20, slightly better than analysts' expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining nearly 16% the following day.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-5.17%
Avg 1-day reaction
+3.37%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Cleveland-Cliffs' upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest profit turnaround. However, the company has struggled with profitability recently, leading to mixed sentiments.
Bull case
If Cleveland-Cliffs can achieve or exceed the consensus EPS of $0.24, it may signal a recovery in profitability, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports a loss again or fails to meet revenue expectations, it could further erode investor trust and lead to a significant stock decline.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.24Earnings per share (EPS) is a crucial indicator of profitability, and investors will be keen to see if the company can turn around its recent losses.
Revenue
$5.7BRevenue figures provide insight into overall demand for Cleveland-Cliffs' products and can indicate market strength or weakness.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Cleveland-Cliffs report a positive EPS for Q3-2026?
A positive EPS would indicate a significant turnaround from previous losses and could restore investor confidence.
Q2
What is the revenue outlook for the upcoming quarter?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand for steel products and overall market health.
—
Est. EPS
$1.39
Est. Rev
$2.3B
Impl. Move
±4.8%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for Cleveland-Cliffs to achieve profitability this quarter, given recent improvements in steel demand.
Supporting evidence
The stock has shown resilience with a 15.98% gain following the last earnings report, indicating investor optimism.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, hinting at potential surprises.
Cleveland-Cliffs' recent operational adjustments could lead to better-than-expected results.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in above $0.24, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results are pivotal for Cleveland-Cliffs as they seek to demonstrate a recovery in profitability amidst a challenging market.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.24 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
Reporting an EPS below $0.15 would reinforce the bear case and indicate ongoing struggles.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.93%
Historical Avg
±9.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors expect volatility based on the upcoming results.
Options are pricing ±11.9% while CLF has averaged ±9.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
53.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials
Fade rate: 13 of 28 (46%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 28 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.42%
of float
Insider
0.86%
of float
Holders
730
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
55,672,638 sh · $671.4M
9.76%
-5.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.7%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as the market digests management's commentary and outlook.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.0%, further complicating its recovery narrative.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
State Street Corporation
33,248,516 sh · $401.0M
5.83%
-15.4%
Slate Path Capital, LP
28,410,081 sh · $342.6M
4.98%
47.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
25,796,291 sh · $311.1M
4.52%
0.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
25,187,723 sh · $303.8M
4.41%
0.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.