Post-earnings recap
Reported
Fri, May 8, 2026
EPS actual
$-3.64
EPS est.
$-0.57
EPS surprise
-538.60%
1-day move
-7.31%
Calumet, Inc. reported a significant loss in EPS, far worse than analysts had expected, which likely contributed to the stock's decline of 3.61%. The lack of revenue figures and management commentary adds uncertainty about the company's current performance and future outlook. Investors may be concerned about the implications of such a large EPS miss.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-3.64 | $-0.63 | -538.60% |
| Revenue | N/A | $953M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, particularly as global energy demands evolve.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Calumet reported an EPS of $-0.43, which was better than the expected $-0.67, resulting in a positive surprise. However, the stock fell by 10.79% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-81.98%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.48%
Overall, analysts expect Calumet to report a loss this quarter, with a focus on whether the company can narrow its losses compared to previous quarters. The market is particularly sensitive to any signs of revenue growth.
Bull case
If Calumet can exceed the EPS estimate and show stronger revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss than expected or shows declining revenue, it may lead to further stock declines as investor confidence wanes.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.63Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability. This quarter, analysts expect a loss of $-0.63, which will be closely scrutinized for signs of improvement or deterioration.
Revenue
$953MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand. A consensus revenue of $953 million will help gauge operational efficiency.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Calumet's EPS improve from the expected $-0.63?
A smaller loss or a surprise profit could indicate operational improvements and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth this quarter?
Revenue performance will be critical to assess the company's market position and ability to recover from previous losses.
—
Est. EPS
$0.22
Est. Rev
$996M
Impl. Move
±8.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Calumet's potential for a turnaround, as recent operational changes could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.
Supporting evidence
Calumet has a history of surprising the market, with a 63% EPS beat rate in the last eight quarters.
The implied move of 8.84% suggests traders are anticipating volatility, which could indicate underlying confidence in a potential positive surprise.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in better than $-0.63, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter centers on whether Calumet can stabilize its earnings and grow revenue amidst challenging market conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS improvement to better than $-0.63, coupled with revenue exceeding $953 million, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A larger loss than $-0.63 and revenue below $851 million would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.84%
Historical Avg
±5.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 8.84%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.8% while CLMT has averaged ±5.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
51.3%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$0.00
24,555 sh
1 insider
Net
—
Balanced
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
—
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
52.02%
of float
Insider
20.15%
of float
Holders
272
institutions
Top Holders· as of Sep 2026
Two Seas Capital Lp
5,280,659 sh · $297.2M
6.01%
-20.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Calumet beats expectations, history suggests the stock may react positively, potentially leading to a 3.1% increase based on past performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to a muted response as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss its targets, history indicates a potential decline of around 3.3%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 25, 2026 · @ $0.00
24,555 sh
$0.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Blackrock Inc.
5,234,106 sh · $294.6M
5.95%
5.1%
Wasserstein Management, L.P
3,964,893 sh · $223.2M
4.51%
-13.3%
State Street Corporation
3,471,065 sh · $195.4M
3.95%
12.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,453,911 sh · $194.4M
3.93%
0.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.