Equity Profile

CLMT

Calumet, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$4.3B

Aug7Fri

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Calumet is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential to assess the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to energy demand.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $4 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, particularly as global energy demand continues to evolve.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.37%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.19%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Calumet reported an EPS of -$3.64, significantly missing estimates, which led to a 7.31% drop in stock price the following day. The company has faced challenges in meeting earnings expectations recently.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Calumet's upcoming earnings report, especially after a series of mixed results. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

If Calumet can show a significant improvement in EPS and revenue, it could signal a turnaround, leading to increased investor confidence and stock price appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to report losses and fails to provide a clear path to profitability, it may lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether the company is moving towards profitability or continuing its trend of losses.

How does Calumet plan to address its revenue challenges?

Understanding the company's strategy for revenue growth will be key to assessing its long-term viability and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Calumet's potential for a turnaround, as recent operational changes could lead to improved efficiency and cost management.

Supporting Evidence

Calumet has historically shown the ability to rebound from poor quarters, evidenced by previous EPS surprises.

The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, suggesting that significant upside potential may be overlooked.

Key Risk

If Calumet reports an EPS improvement, it could challenge the current negative sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Calumet's ability to turn around its financial performance after a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $0.50 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $3.00 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.72%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.72% in either direction, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.7% while CLMT has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

48.0%

Calls (95K)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (63K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 17 of 29 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Calumet beats expectations, history suggests a modest stock increase of around 0.66%, confirming a positive shift in financial performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the company's future.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.66%, reinforcing negative sentiment and concerns about the company's profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost-cutting measures and their impact on profitability.
2Details on revenue generation strategies and market demand outlook.
3Management's commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
4Insights into market conditions affecting the oil and gas sector.
5Any guidance on future earnings expectations.

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Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Calumet is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential to assess the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to energy demand.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.37%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.19%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Calumet's upcoming earnings report, especially after a series of mixed results. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

If Calumet can show a significant improvement in EPS and revenue, it could signal a turnaround, leading to increased investor confidence and stock price appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to report losses and fails to provide a clear path to profitability, it may lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether the company is moving towards profitability or continuing its trend of losses.

How does Calumet plan to address its revenue challenges?

Understanding the company's strategy for revenue growth will be key to assessing its long-term viability and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Calumet's potential for a turnaround, as recent operational changes could lead to improved efficiency and cost management.

Supporting Evidence

Calumet has historically shown the ability to rebound from poor quarters, evidenced by previous EPS surprises.

The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, suggesting that significant upside potential may be overlooked.

Key Risk

If Calumet reports an EPS improvement, it could challenge the current negative sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Calumet's ability to turn around its financial performance after a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $0.50 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $3.00 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.72%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.72% in either direction, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.7% while CLMT has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

48.0%

Calls (95K)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (63K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Calumet beats expectations, history suggests a modest stock increase of around 0.66%, confirming a positive shift in financial performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the company's future.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.66%, reinforcing negative sentiment and concerns about the company's profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost-cutting measures and their impact on profitability.
2Details on revenue generation strategies and market demand outlook.
3Management's commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
4Insights into market conditions affecting the oil and gas sector.
5Any guidance on future earnings expectations.