Post-earnings recap
Reported
Fri, Aug 7, 2026
EPS actual
$-1.09
EPS est.
$-0.23
EPS surprise
-373.91%
1-day move
-5.73%
Calumet, Inc. reported a significant earnings miss with an EPS of -$1.09, leading to a 5.73% drop in stock price. The lack of revenue figures and management commentary adds uncertainty to the outlook. Investors may be concerned about the company's financial health and future performance given these results.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-1.09 | N/A | -373.91% |
| Revenue | — | N/A | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $4 billion, the company plays a significant role in the energy supply chain, which is crucial as global energy demands continue to evolve.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Calumet reported an EPS of -$3.64, significantly missing analyst estimates. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 7.31% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-81.98%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.48%
Investors are cautious ahead of Calumet's Q2 earnings, especially after the significant EPS miss last quarter. The market is looking for signs of recovery or improvement in operational performance.
Bull case
If Calumet can show a turnaround in earnings and revenue, it could restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Continued losses or further misses could lead to increased skepticism about the company's ability to manage costs and navigate market challenges.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?
Given the significant miss last quarter, investors are keen to see if Calumet can return to profitability or at least narrow losses.
Q2
How is Calumet managing its operational costs?
Cost management will be critical for the company's recovery, and any insights into this will be closely scrutinized by investors.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±9.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may not fully appreciate Calumet's potential for operational improvements, especially in cost management and efficiency.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 5.72% move, which is below the historical average of 7.12%.
Calumet's recent history shows that significant surprises can lead to sharp stock reactions, indicating potential for recovery.
The company has a mixed track record, but a turnaround in operational efficiency could lead to better-than-expected results.
Key risk
If Calumet shows a significant improvement in cost management and operational efficiency, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Calumet can stabilize its financial performance after a series of disappointing results.
Bull confirmed if
A return to positive EPS or a significant reduction in losses would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
Continued losses or a larger-than-expected EPS miss would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.72%
Historical Avg
±5.9%
The options market is pricing in a moderate move, suggesting that investors expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.7% while CLMT has averaged ±5.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
48.0%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$0.00
24,555 sh
1 insider
Net
—
Balanced
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
—
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
52.02%
of float
Insider
20.15%
of float
Holders
272
institutions
Top Holders· as of Sep 2026
Two Seas Capital Lp
5,280,659 sh · $297.2M
6.01%
-20.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Calumet beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest uptick, confirming a recovery narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but lack strong guidance, the stock may remain volatile as investors reassess their outlook.
Miss
A miss could lead to a significant drop, as historical patterns show that the stock tends to react negatively to earnings misses.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 25, 2026 · @ $0.00
24,555 sh
$0.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Blackrock Inc.
5,234,106 sh · $294.6M
5.95%
5.1%
Wasserstein Management, L.P
3,964,893 sh · $223.2M
4.51%
-13.3%
State Street Corporation
3,471,065 sh · $195.4M
3.95%
12.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,453,911 sh · $194.4M
3.93%
0.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.