Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
EPS actual
$2.99
EPS est.
$2.91
EPS surprise
+2.82%
1-day move
+5.00%
CME Group Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which likely contributed to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising 5%. The lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the overall performance and future outlook. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS beat, but the absence of additional context makes it difficult to assess the company's trajectory.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.99 | N/A | +2.82% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
CME Group Inc. operates in the financial sector, specifically in financial exchanges and data. It plays a crucial role in global financial markets by facilitating trading and providing market data, which is essential for investors and businesses alike.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, CME reported an EPS of $3.36, slightly missing the estimate of $3.37. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.46% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+0.58%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.03%
Overall, expectations are mixed as CME has shown a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, but recent performance has raised some concerns.
Bull case
If CME can continue to leverage its market position and increase trading volumes, it could see significant revenue growth, leading to a strong earnings report.
Bear case
Conversely, if trading volumes decline or if there are signs of increased competition, the company may struggle to meet expectations, leading to a negative reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the reported trading volume for Q2-2026?
Trading volume is a critical metric that can indicate the health of CME's business and its ability to generate revenue.
Q2
How has market data revenue performed in the quarter?
Market data revenue is a key component of CME's earnings, and any significant changes could impact overall profitability.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for CME to capitalize on increased market volatility, which could drive trading volumes higher than expected.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 9.11% move, indicating expectations for significant volatility.
The company's historical performance shows a strong tendency to beat EPS estimates, suggesting potential upside.
Key risk
If trading volumes exceed 15% growth, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around trading volume and market data revenue, which are essential for CME's growth.
Bull confirmed if
A trading volume increase of over 15% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A decline in trading volume below 5% year-over-year would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.11%
Historical Avg
±1.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.1% while CME has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
24.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$78,625.74
292.55 sh
1 insider
Sold
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Net
$78,625.74
Net buying
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
91.90%
of float
Insider
0.44%
of float
Holders
2,319
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
30,566,342 sh · $8.3B
8.50%
-2.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If CME beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.38%, confirming the strength of its market position.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -0.45%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future growth.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$78,625.74
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Sep 25, 2026 · @ $268.76
292.55 sh
$78,625.74
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
23,661,856 sh · $6.4B
6.58%
1.3%
State Street Corporation
16,346,170 sh · $4.4B
4.55%
1.8%
Morgan Stanley
9,728,195 sh · $2.6B
2.71%
3.4%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
9,271,309 sh · $2.5B
2.58%
1.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jun 16, 2026 · disclosed Jul 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.