Consumer Discretionary·Restaurants·$44.6B
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is a popular fast-casual restaurant chain known for its customizable burritos, tacos, and bowls made with fresh ingredients. As a key player in the consumer discretionary sector, Chipotle's performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and preferences for healthier dining options.
EPS
Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and this quarter's consensus reflects expectations for continued growth.
Revenue
Total revenue indicates the overall sales performance and customer demand, which is vital for assessing the company's growth trajectory.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
8Q
EPS Beat Rate
100%
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.92%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.58%
In Q4 2025, Chipotle reported an EPS of $0.25, slightly exceeding expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.71% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Chipotle's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest EPS of $0.24 and revenue of $3.1B. The company's strong track record of beating earnings estimates adds to this optimism.
Bull Case
If Chipotle can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and effective management strategies, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about slowing growth in a competitive market, leading to a negative stock reaction.
EPS
$0.24Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and this quarter's consensus reflects expectations for continued growth.
Revenue
$3.1BTotal revenue indicates the overall sales performance and customer demand, which is vital for assessing the company's growth trajectory.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.24?
A beat on EPS would reinforce Chipotle's growth story and could lead to a positive market reaction.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth, particularly in digital sales?
Strong revenue growth, especially from digital channels, is crucial for sustaining momentum and investor confidence.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Chipotle's ability to drive digital sales growth, which could significantly boost revenue beyond current expectations.
Supporting Evidence
Chipotle's recent investments in digital infrastructure may yield higher-than-expected sales.
The company's focus on menu innovation could attract new customers, enhancing revenue.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant surprises.
Key Risk
If digital sales growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current consensus view.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it reflects Chipotle's ability to navigate a competitive landscape and changing consumer preferences.
Bull Confirmed If
EPS growth of at least 10% year-over-year, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear Confirmed If
Revenue growth below $3.0B, suggesting potential challenges in customer demand.
Implied Move
±10.5%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor interest and uncertainty.
Options price a 10.5% move but the stock has averaged only 1.3% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Chipotle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.58%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In-Line / Cautious
An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors assess management's commentary on future growth prospects.
Miss
A miss could result in a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 1.3%, raising concerns about growth sustainability.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
VERIZON COMMUNICATIO
Apr 27, 2026