Equity Profile

CMI

Cummins Inc.

IndustrialsConstruction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment$91.7B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a leading manufacturer of engines and power generation equipment, primarily serving the construction machinery and heavy transportation sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Cummins is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how well Cummins is performing in a competitive market and whether it is gaining or losing market share.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CMI Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a leading manufacturer of engines and power generation equipment, primarily serving the construction machinery and heavy transportation sectors. With a market cap of $92 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the industrial sector, particularly as global demand for construction and transportation equipment fluctuates.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Cummins reported an EPS of $4.71, missing expectations by nearly 16%. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 2.76%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Cummins' upcoming earnings are mixed, given the recent earnings misses and the volatility in the industrial sector.

Bull Case

If Cummins can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it may signal a recovery and renewed investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued earnings misses or weak guidance could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent earnings misses, the market will closely scrutinize EPS to gauge profitability and management effectiveness.

How is Cummins addressing supply chain challenges and their impact on revenue?

Supply chain issues have affected many industrial companies, and Cummins' response could significantly influence future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Cummins' ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, particularly if they can show strong revenue growth despite supply chain issues.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 17.75% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The recent insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's future prospects, contrasting with the cautious sentiment in the market.

Key Risk

If Cummins can demonstrate a significant improvement in gross margins, it could challenge the prevailing bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around Cummins' ability to recover from recent earnings misses and navigate industry challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to EPS growth above $5.00 would confirm the bull case and indicate a turnaround in performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.50 would reinforce the bear case and raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.75%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.7% while CMI has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.8%

Calls (51K)P/C Ratio: 2.30Puts (28K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.4%, with a raw directional average of +1.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cummins beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.45%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 0.45%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-NJJosh GottheimerRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain management and its impact on production.
2Details on revenue growth in key segments like construction and transportation.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effect on gross margins.
4Management's outlook on market conditions for the remainder of the year.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning and market share trends.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a leading manufacturer of engines and power generation equipment, primarily serving the construction machinery and heavy transportation sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Cummins is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how well Cummins is performing in a competitive market and whether it is gaining or losing market share.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CMI Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Cummins reported an EPS of $4.71, missing expectations by nearly 16%. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 2.76%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Cummins' upcoming earnings are mixed, given the recent earnings misses and the volatility in the industrial sector.

Bull Case

If Cummins can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it may signal a recovery and renewed investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued earnings misses or weak guidance could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent earnings misses, the market will closely scrutinize EPS to gauge profitability and management effectiveness.

How is Cummins addressing supply chain challenges and their impact on revenue?

Supply chain issues have affected many industrial companies, and Cummins' response could significantly influence future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Cummins' ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, particularly if they can show strong revenue growth despite supply chain issues.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 17.75% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The recent insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's future prospects, contrasting with the cautious sentiment in the market.

Key Risk

If Cummins can demonstrate a significant improvement in gross margins, it could challenge the prevailing bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around Cummins' ability to recover from recent earnings misses and navigate industry challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to EPS growth above $5.00 would confirm the bull case and indicate a turnaround in performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.50 would reinforce the bear case and raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.75%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.7% while CMI has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.8%

Calls (51K)P/C Ratio: 2.30Puts (28K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cummins beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.45%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 0.45%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-NJJosh GottheimerRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain management and its impact on production.
2Details on revenue growth in key segments like construction and transportation.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effect on gross margins.
4Management's outlook on market conditions for the remainder of the year.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning and market share trends.