Equity Profile

CMI

Cummins Inc.

IndustrialsConstruction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment$91.7B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a global leader in the manufacturing of engines and power generation equipment, primarily serving the construction and heavy transportation sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Cummins is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects overall demand for Cummins' products and services, which is critical in the current economic climate.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CMI Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a global leader in the manufacturing of engines and power generation equipment, primarily serving the construction and heavy transportation sectors. With a market cap of $92 billion, the company plays a crucial role in industrial operations and is influenced by trends in infrastructure spending and environmental regulations.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Cummins reported an EPS of $4.71, falling short of expectations by nearly 16%. The stock reacted positively the next day, rising by 2.76%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiency.
Commitment to enhancing product offerings in sustainable energy.
Plans to expand market presence in emerging economies.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as investors await clarity on Cummins' ability to rebound from recent earnings misses. The market is particularly focused on revenue and margin performance.

Bull Case

If Cummins can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it could signal a recovery in demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to provide a clear path to recovery, investor confidence may wane, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in assessing whether Cummins can recover from previous misses and restore investor confidence.

How is Cummins addressing supply chain challenges?

Supply chain issues have impacted many manufacturers; understanding Cummins' strategy will be key to evaluating future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street is overly cautious about Cummins' ability to recover, underestimating the potential for improved operational efficiency and market demand.

Supporting Evidence

The stock has historically reacted positively to earnings beats, suggesting potential upside.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting uncertainty that could lead to a positive surprise.

Recent insider buying suggests confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $5.00, it could shift the narrative and validate the bullish thesis.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Cummins can overcome recent operational challenges and improve profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.00 or higher would indicate a strong recovery and improved operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.50 would confirm ongoing struggles and could lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.75%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.7% while CMI has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.8%

Calls (51K)P/C Ratio: 2.30Puts (28K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.4%, with a raw directional average of +1.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cummins beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 4.45%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.45%, reinforcing bearish sentiment and concerns about the company's trajectory.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-NJJosh GottheimerRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on revenue growth in key markets.
2Updates on supply chain management and cost controls.
3Any commentary on new product launches or innovations.
4Insights into customer demand trends and market outlook.
5Management's perspective on competitive positioning.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a global leader in the manufacturing of engines and power generation equipment, primarily serving the construction and heavy transportation sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Cummins is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects overall demand for Cummins' products and services, which is critical in the current economic climate.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CMI Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Cummins reported an EPS of $4.71, falling short of expectations by nearly 16%. The stock reacted positively the next day, rising by 2.76%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiency.
Commitment to enhancing product offerings in sustainable energy.
Plans to expand market presence in emerging economies.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as investors await clarity on Cummins' ability to rebound from recent earnings misses. The market is particularly focused on revenue and margin performance.

Bull Case

If Cummins can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it could signal a recovery in demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to provide a clear path to recovery, investor confidence may wane, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in assessing whether Cummins can recover from previous misses and restore investor confidence.

How is Cummins addressing supply chain challenges?

Supply chain issues have impacted many manufacturers; understanding Cummins' strategy will be key to evaluating future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street is overly cautious about Cummins' ability to recover, underestimating the potential for improved operational efficiency and market demand.

Supporting Evidence

The stock has historically reacted positively to earnings beats, suggesting potential upside.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting uncertainty that could lead to a positive surprise.

Recent insider buying suggests confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $5.00, it could shift the narrative and validate the bullish thesis.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Cummins can overcome recent operational challenges and improve profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.00 or higher would indicate a strong recovery and improved operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.50 would confirm ongoing struggles and could lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.75%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.7% while CMI has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.8%

Calls (51K)P/C Ratio: 2.30Puts (28K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cummins beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 4.45%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.45%, reinforcing bearish sentiment and concerns about the company's trajectory.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-NJJosh GottheimerRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on revenue growth in key markets.
2Updates on supply chain management and cost controls.
3Any commentary on new product launches or innovations.
4Insights into customer demand trends and market outlook.
5Management's perspective on competitive positioning.