Equity Profile

CMI

Cummins Inc.

IndustrialsConstruction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment$89.2B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a global leader in power solutions, specializing in engines and related technologies for construction machinery and heavy transportation....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge how well Cummins is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects overall business health and demand for Cummins' products, which is vital in the current economic climate.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CMI Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a global leader in power solutions, specializing in engines and related technologies for construction machinery and heavy transportation. With a market cap of $89 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the industrial sector, particularly as demand for sustainable and efficient power solutions grows.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Cummins reported an EPS of $4.71, falling short of the expected $5.60, resulting in a 15.92% surprise. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.76% the following day despite the miss.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Cummins' upcoming earnings are mixed, given the recent trend of missing EPS estimates. Investors are keen to see if the company can turn around its performance this quarter.

Bull Case

If Cummins can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to provide clear guidance on future growth, it may lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to the previous quarters?

Given the recent history of missing EPS estimates, this number will be crucial in determining investor sentiment and stock performance.

What is the company's outlook on market demand for heavy equipment in the coming months?

Insights into market demand will help investors assess the potential for revenue growth and operational stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Cummins' ability to rebound from recent misses, especially if they can leverage new technologies to drive efficiency.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.

Recent insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $5.00, it could shift the narrative significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Cummins can recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate growth in a challenging market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.00 or higher would confirm a positive outlook and restore investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.50 would signal ongoing challenges and could lead to a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.75%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.7% while CMI has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.8%

Calls (51K)P/C Ratio: 2.30Puts (28K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.4%, with a raw directional average of +1.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cummins beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 4.45%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data indicating an average drop of 0.45% following such outcomes.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-NJJosh GottheimerRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product lines or technologies that could drive future growth.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into supply chain stability and how it affects production.
4Any commentary on global market conditions and their effect on demand.
5Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue growth.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is a global leader in power solutions, specializing in engines and related technologies for construction machinery and heavy transportation....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge how well Cummins is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects overall business health and demand for Cummins' products, which is vital in the current economic climate.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CMI Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Cummins reported an EPS of $4.71, falling short of the expected $5.60, resulting in a 15.92% surprise. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.76% the following day despite the miss.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Cummins' upcoming earnings are mixed, given the recent trend of missing EPS estimates. Investors are keen to see if the company can turn around its performance this quarter.

Bull Case

If Cummins can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to provide clear guidance on future growth, it may lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to the previous quarters?

Given the recent history of missing EPS estimates, this number will be crucial in determining investor sentiment and stock performance.

What is the company's outlook on market demand for heavy equipment in the coming months?

Insights into market demand will help investors assess the potential for revenue growth and operational stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Cummins' ability to rebound from recent misses, especially if they can leverage new technologies to drive efficiency.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.

Recent insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $5.00, it could shift the narrative significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Cummins can recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate growth in a challenging market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.00 or higher would confirm a positive outlook and restore investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.50 would signal ongoing challenges and could lead to a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.75%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.7% while CMI has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.8%

Calls (51K)P/C Ratio: 2.30Puts (28K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Cummins beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 4.45%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data indicating an average drop of 0.45% following such outcomes.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-NJJosh GottheimerRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product lines or technologies that could drive future growth.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into supply chain stability and how it affects production.
4Any commentary on global market conditions and their effect on demand.
5Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue growth.