Equity Profile

CNI

Canadian National Railway Company

IndustrialsRail Transportation$71.9B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:30 AM EDT

Canadian National Railway Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.32	$1.81	-27.1%
Revenue	N/A	$4.4B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Canadian National Railway Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.32	$1.81	-27.1%
Revenue	N/A	$4.4B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Defensive

Overall, management expressed caution regarding current market conditions. They highlighted ongoing efforts to improve operational performance.

Management acknowledged the challenges faced in the quarter.

They emphasized their commitment to operational efficiency despite the earnings miss.

What It Means

The earnings report indicates that Canadian National Railway faced challenges this quarter, resulting in an EPS miss. Despite this, the stock reaction remained neutral, closing unchanged. Investors may be taking a wait-and-see approach as the company navigates current market conditions without providing updated guidance.

Company Snapshot

Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) is a major player in the rail transportation sector, providing freight services across Canada and into the United States. As a key part of the industrial sector, CNI plays a vital role in moving goods efficiently, which is crucial for the economy, especially as consumer spending and supply chain dynamics evolve.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

1.81

Revenue

Revenue growth reflects the demand for rail services and overall business performance, which is critical for assessing future growth.

4.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.70%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q3-2025), CNI reported an EPS of $1.31, slightly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.80% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect CNI to report an EPS of $1.81 and revenue of $4.4 billion, indicating steady performance amid economic fluctuations.

Bull Case

If CNI exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for rail services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS or revenue targets, it may raise concerns about demand and operational efficiency, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

1.81

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

4.4B

Revenue growth reflects the demand for rail services and overall business performance, which is critical for assessing future growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will CNI achieve an EPS of $1.81 or better?

This number is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and efficiency, directly impacting investor sentiment.

What is the revenue outlook for the upcoming quarters?

Understanding revenue growth will help gauge demand for rail services and the overall health of the business.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent operational improvements and demand recovery in the rail sector, which could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

CNI's historical EPS surprises indicate potential for positive surprises, with a 25% beat rate.

The options market is pricing a higher move than historical averages, suggesting expectations may be too cautious.

Key Risk

If CNI's revenue growth exceeds $4.5 billion, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is keenly focused on both earnings and revenue growth as indicators of CNI's operational health amidst economic uncertainties.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.85 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.74 would raise concerns about profitability and efficiency.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.01%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.01% in either direction following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.0% while CNI has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

23.9%

Calls (2.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.48Puts (9K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 0 of 4 (0%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 4 of 4 (100%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.2%, with a raw directional average of +1.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders trimming

Institutional

74.76%

of float

Insider

2.67%

of float

Holders

1,213

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Gates Foundation Trust
51,826,786 sh · $5.9B
8.51%
Flat

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CNI beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +0.78%, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted response as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of -0.21%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiency improvements.
2Insights into freight demand trends and customer sentiment.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth.
4Details on cost management strategies.
5Comments on competitive pressures in the rail industry.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

1.81

Revenue

Revenue growth reflects the demand for rail services and overall business performance, which is critical for assessing future growth.

4.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.70%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q3-2025), CNI reported an EPS of $1.31, slightly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.80% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect CNI to report an EPS of $1.81 and revenue of $4.4 billion, indicating steady performance amid economic fluctuations.

Bull Case

If CNI exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for rail services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS or revenue targets, it may raise concerns about demand and operational efficiency, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

1.81

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

4.4B

Revenue growth reflects the demand for rail services and overall business performance, which is critical for assessing future growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will CNI achieve an EPS of $1.81 or better?

This number is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and efficiency, directly impacting investor sentiment.

What is the revenue outlook for the upcoming quarters?

Understanding revenue growth will help gauge demand for rail services and the overall health of the business.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent operational improvements and demand recovery in the rail sector, which could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

CNI's historical EPS surprises indicate potential for positive surprises, with a 25% beat rate.

The options market is pricing a higher move than historical averages, suggesting expectations may be too cautious.

Key Risk

If CNI's revenue growth exceeds $4.5 billion, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is keenly focused on both earnings and revenue growth as indicators of CNI's operational health amidst economic uncertainties.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.85 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.74 would raise concerns about profitability and efficiency.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.01%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.01% in either direction following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.0% while CNI has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

23.9%

Calls (2.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.48Puts (9K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 0 of 4 (0%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders trimming

Institutional

74.76%

of float

Insider

2.67%

of float

Holders

1,213

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Gates Foundation Trust
51,826,786 sh · $5.9B
8.51%
Flat

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CNI beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +0.78%, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted response as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of -0.21%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiency improvements.
2Insights into freight demand trends and customer sentiment.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth.
4Details on cost management strategies.
5Comments on competitive pressures in the rail industry.