Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$1.32
EPS est.
$0.54
EPS surprise
+143.54%
1-day move
-0.26%
CNX Resources Corporation is an energy company focused on the exploration and production of oil and gas. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a significant role in the energy sector, which is influenced by global oil prices and demand for natural gas.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, CNX reported an impressive EPS of $2.18, significantly exceeding estimates. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.
EPS beat streak
5Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+89.81%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.19%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about CNX's upcoming earnings, expecting solid performance based on previous surprises. However, the market is also wary due to the volatility in energy prices.
Bull case
If CNX can replicate its previous earnings surprises, it may see a strong positive reaction from investors, especially if it maintains or exceeds its EPS estimates.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet the consensus EPS of $0.51, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.51Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well CNX is managing its costs and revenues.
Revenue
$431MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will CNX's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.51?
A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Q2
What commentary will management provide on future revenue growth?
Insights into revenue expectations will be critical for assessing the company's growth trajectory in a volatile market.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±18.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating CNX's ability to leverage recent operational efficiencies, which could lead to a stronger EPS than expected.
Supporting evidence
CNX has consistently surprised on EPS in recent quarters, indicating potential for another positive surprise.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant news.
Key risk
If CNX's EPS comes in above $0.60, it would challenge the consensus view and likely lead to a positive reassessment of the stock.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing CNX's ability to sustain profitability in a fluctuating energy market, making EPS a critical focus.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.60 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.44 would signal potential issues in cost management or market demand.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.41%
Historical Avg
±2.3%
The options market is pricing in a substantial move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.4% while CNX has averaged ±2.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
26.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
93.36%
of float
Insider
4.32%
of float
Holders
512
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
19,177,390 sh · $649.9M
12.96%
6.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If CNX beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.98%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted reactions as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.88%, reflecting disappointment in the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
8,885,542 sh · $301.1M
6.01%
1.3%
State Street Corporation
7,657,716 sh · $259.5M
5.18%
7.6%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
7,430,891 sh · $251.8M
5.02%
2.7%
Neuberger Berman Group, LLC
6,947,081 sh · $235.4M
4.70%
0.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.