Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±12.9%
EPS beat rate
63%
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±6.7%
Coinbase Global, Inc. is a leading cryptocurrency exchange that allows users to buy, sell, and trade various digital currencies. As a key player in the financial sector, it provides a platform for investors to engage with the growing cryptocurrency market, which has gained significant attention in recent years.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Coinbase reported an unexpected loss of $1.36 per share, significantly missing analyst estimates. Despite this, the stock saw a slight increase the following day, indicating some investor optimism.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-73.07%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.51%
Overall, analysts are cautious ahead of the upcoming earnings report, given the recent earnings miss and the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in user growth and transaction volumes.
Bull case
If Coinbase can demonstrate strong user growth and increased transaction volumes, it could signal a rebound in interest for cryptocurrencies, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to show declining user engagement or transaction volumes, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and future profitability.
Key metrics to watch
User Growth
10 million active usersTracking the number of active users is crucial as it indicates the platform's popularity and potential revenue growth.
Transaction Volume
$20 billionHigher transaction volumes typically lead to increased revenue, making this a vital metric for assessing performance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current number of active users and how does it compare to previous quarters?
User growth is a key indicator of Coinbase's market position and potential revenue, making it critical for investor confidence.
Q2
What are the transaction volumes for the quarter?
Transaction volumes directly impact revenue, and any significant changes could influence market sentiment about the company's future.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the potential for user growth in the upcoming quarter, as recent trends in cryptocurrency adoption suggest a resurgence in interest.
Supporting evidence
Options pricing indicates a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility.
The recent uptick in cryptocurrency prices could lead to increased trading activity on the platform.
Past earnings surprises show that Coinbase can rebound quickly from misses.
Key risk
If user growth comes in below 8 million, it could undermine the bullish narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's focus is on user engagement and transaction volumes, which are essential for assessing Coinbase's recovery potential.
Bull confirmed if
User growth exceeding 10 million active users would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
Transaction volumes falling below $15 billion would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±14.65%
Historical Avg
±4.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±12.9% while COIN has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
78.4%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$3.9M
20,514 sh
1 insider
Net
$3.9M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
68.66%
of float
Insider
1.32%
of float
Holders
1,576
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
16,710,783 sh · $3.0B
7.50%
-0.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Coinbase beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction of around +4.4%.
In line / cautious
An in-line report with cautious management commentary may lead to a muted response as investors weigh future growth prospects.
Miss
If the company misses expectations again, history indicates a potential downside move of about -0.45%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
1 buy·2 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Monthly Revenue
$500 millionMonthly revenue trends can provide insights into the company's financial health and operational efficiency.
$3.9M
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $186.18
13,676 sh
$2.5M
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $198.00
6,838 sh
$1.4M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
14,165,975 sh · $2.5B
6.36%
0.3%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
9,571,891 sh · $1.7B
4.30%
0.9%
State Street Corporation
9,562,203 sh · $1.7B
4.29%
2.2%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
6,154,642 sh · $1.1B
2.76%
0.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 18, 2026 · disclosed Sep 10, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 17, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 16, 2026 · disclosed Jul 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.