Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Dec 10, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±2.6%
EPS beat rate
88%
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates a chain of membership-only warehouse clubs, offering a wide range of products from groceries to electronics. As a major player in the consumer staples sector, Costco's performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and economic conditions, making it a key indicator for retail health.
Last quarter
In Q4-2026, Costco reported an EPS of $6.75, exceeding expectations by 4.15%. Despite the positive earnings surprise, the stock saw a slight decline the following day.
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+2.22%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.79%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about Costco's upcoming earnings, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about inflation and consumer spending may weigh on expectations.
Bull case
If Costco can demonstrate strong membership growth and robust same-store sales, it may signal resilience in consumer spending, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company shows signs of slowing sales or declining membership growth, it could raise concerns about its market position and lead to a negative stock response.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the year-over-year growth rate in same-store sales?
This metric will provide insight into customer demand and overall business health, which is critical for assessing Costco's competitive position.
Q2
How many new memberships were added in the last quarter?
Membership growth is vital for Costco's revenue model, and any slowdown could indicate weakening consumer confidence.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±18.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Costco's resilience in the face of economic challenges, as its strong membership base provides a buffer against downturns.
Supporting evidence
Costco has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.
Recent consumer spending trends show a shift towards value-oriented retailers, which could benefit Costco.
Key risk
If same-store sales growth exceeds 6%, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter centers around consumer spending trends and Costco's ability to maintain its growth trajectory amid economic pressures.
Bull confirmed if
A same-store sales growth rate of +6% or better would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A decline in membership growth below 1% would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.54%
Historical Avg
±1.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 7.54%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±2.6% while COST has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
16.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples
Fade rate: 9 of 28 (32%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 19 of 28 (68%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.2%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$2.7M
3,000.638 sh
2 insiders
Net
$2.7M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
$2.0M
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Costco beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.07%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting mixed investor sentiment.
Miss
Should Costco miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 2.02%, raising concerns about its market position.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
1 buy·1 sell
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$733,328.36
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $915.93
2,200 sh
$2.0M
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $915.93
800.638 sh
$733,328.36
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Net selling
1 trade
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.