Consumer Staples·Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail·$448.6B
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates a chain of membership-only warehouse clubs, offering a wide range of products from groceries to electronics. As a key player in the consumer staples sector, Costco benefits from steady consumer demand, making it a significant barometer for consumer spending trends.
EPS
Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and financial health, reflecting how much profit is allocated to each share of stock.
Revenue
Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth, which is vital for assessing market demand.
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EPS Beat Streak
4Q
EPS Beat Rate
88%
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.55%
Avg Stock Reaction
-0.53%
In the last quarter, Costco reported an EPS of $4.58, slightly above expectations, indicating strong operational performance. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall sales growth.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are generally optimistic about Costco's upcoming earnings, expecting solid EPS and revenue figures that reflect continued consumer demand. The consensus estimates suggest a stable performance amid economic fluctuations.
Bull Case
If Costco exceeds the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal robust consumer spending and effective cost management, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company falls short of expectations, it may raise concerns about weakening consumer demand or increased competition, leading to a negative reaction in the stock.
EPS
$4.95Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and financial health, reflecting how much profit is allocated to each share of stock.
Revenue
$68.9BTotal revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth, which is vital for assessing market demand.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will Costco's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $4.95?
A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational efficiency and consumer demand, which would likely boost investor confidence.
Q2
What will be the reported revenue compared to the consensus of $68.9B?
Revenue performance is critical for understanding overall sales growth and market demand, impacting future guidance and stock performance.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Costco's ability to leverage its membership model for increased sales, especially in a challenging economic environment. This could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting Evidence
Costco has consistently surprised on EPS in recent quarters, indicating strong operational management.
The company's focus on value and bulk purchasing could attract more consumers during economic downturns.
Key Risk
If Costco's membership growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the revenue outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Costco can maintain its growth trajectory amid economic pressures and competition.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $5.10 or higher, with revenue surpassing $69B, would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $4.80 and revenue under $67B would support the bear case.
Implied Move
±5%
Historical Avg
±1.1%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of around 5% following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing ±6.2% while COST has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat setup in Consumer Staples
n=30Fade rate: 9 of 29 (31%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 20 of 29 (69%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Costco beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +1.04%, confirming strong demand and operational strength.
In-Line / Cautious
A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh management's commentary on future growth.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of -1.04%, reflecting concerns over consumer spending.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
GRUPO FINANCIERO GAL B ADR
May 26, 2026