Equity Profile

COUR

Coursera, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryEducation Services$1.5B

Jul23Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Coursera, Inc. is an online education platform that offers courses and degrees from top universities and organizations....

Key Metrics to Watch

User Growth

An increase in users indicates greater engagement and potential revenue growth.

N/A

Course Completion Rates

Higher completion rates can lead to better customer satisfaction and retention, impacting future revenue.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COUR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Coursera, Inc. is an online education platform that offers courses and degrees from top universities and organizations. As a player in the Consumer Discretionary sector, it benefits from the growing demand for online learning and skills development, especially in a rapidly changing job market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+164.66%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Coursera reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.07, significantly beating expectations of a loss. However, the stock dropped 3.40% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding partnerships with universities.
Enhance user experience on the platform.
Increase investment in marketing to attract new users.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Coursera's upcoming earnings, given its recent performance and the potential for continued user growth. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.

Bull Case

If Coursera continues to show strong user growth and high course completion rates, it could lead to increased revenue and a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if user growth stagnates or if course completion rates decline, it could signal trouble for future earnings, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current user growth rate compared to previous quarters?

User growth is critical for Coursera's revenue potential and overall market confidence.

How are course completion rates trending this quarter?

Completion rates directly impact customer satisfaction and retention, which are key for future revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for user engagement to drive revenue growth, especially given recent trends in online education.

Supporting Evidence

Historically, Coursera has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger performance than expected.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate a more volatile reaction than usual.

Key Risk

If user growth rates come in below 10%, it could significantly undermine the bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around user engagement and retention, which are vital for Coursera's growth strategy.

Bull Confirmed If

User growth exceeding 15% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in course completion rates below 70% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±27.37%

Historical Avg

±3.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock price, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±27.4% while COUR has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

82.2%

Calls (281K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Coursera beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.06% on average, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

If Coursera misses expectations, history suggests a potential drop, with the average reaction being negative, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on partnerships with universities and new course offerings.
2Details on marketing strategies aimed at user acquisition.
3Trends in user engagement and course completion rates.
4Any changes in pricing strategy for courses or subscriptions.
5Management's outlook on the competitive landscape in online education.

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Company Snapshot

Coursera, Inc. is an online education platform that offers courses and degrees from top universities and organizations....

Key Metrics to Watch

User Growth

An increase in users indicates greater engagement and potential revenue growth.

N/A

Course Completion Rates

Higher completion rates can lead to better customer satisfaction and retention, impacting future revenue.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

COUR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+164.66%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.06%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding partnerships with universities.
Enhance user experience on the platform.
Increase investment in marketing to attract new users.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Coursera continues to show strong user growth and high course completion rates, it could lead to increased revenue and a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if user growth stagnates or if course completion rates decline, it could signal trouble for future earnings, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current user growth rate compared to previous quarters?

User growth is critical for Coursera's revenue potential and overall market confidence.

How are course completion rates trending this quarter?

Completion rates directly impact customer satisfaction and retention, which are key for future revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for user engagement to drive revenue growth, especially given recent trends in online education.

Supporting Evidence

Historically, Coursera has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger performance than expected.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate a more volatile reaction than usual.

Key Risk

If user growth rates come in below 10%, it could significantly undermine the bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around user engagement and retention, which are vital for Coursera's growth strategy.

Bull Confirmed If

User growth exceeding 15% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in course completion rates below 70% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±27.37%

Historical Avg

±3.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock price, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±27.4% while COUR has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

82.2%

Calls (281K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Coursera beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.06% on average, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

If Coursera misses expectations, history suggests a potential drop, with the average reaction being negative, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on partnerships with universities and new course offerings.
2Details on marketing strategies aimed at user acquisition.
3Trends in user engagement and course completion rates.
4Any changes in pricing strategy for courses or subscriptions.
5Management's outlook on the competitive landscape in online education.