Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.17
EPS est.
$-0.03
EPS surprise
+666.67%
1-day move
+5.64%
Coursera, Inc. is an online education platform that connects learners with courses from top universities and organizations. As a player in the Consumer Discretionary sector, it benefits from trends in digital learning and workforce development, especially as more people seek to upskill in a rapidly changing job market.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Coursera reported an earnings surprise with an EPS of $0.07, significantly beating expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.40% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+227.74%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.69%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about Coursera's upcoming earnings, especially given its recent history of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about user growth and revenue generation persist.
Bull case
If Coursera continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could indicate strong operational performance and user demand, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
On the other hand, if user growth stagnates or revenue per user declines, it could raise red flags about the company's long-term viability, resulting in a negative stock reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current user growth rate compared to previous quarters?
User growth is critical for Coursera's revenue potential, and any slowdown could signal challenges in attracting new learners.
Q2
How has revenue per user changed in the last quarter?
Changes in revenue per user can indicate how effectively Coursera is monetizing its offerings and could impact future profitability.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of Coursera's recent partnerships on user growth and revenue potential.
Supporting evidence
Recent partnerships with major universities could drive user acquisition significantly.
Options pricing suggests a high level of expected volatility, indicating that traders are anticipating major developments.
Coursera's historical performance shows a consistent ability to surprise on earnings, which could be overlooked.
Key risk
If user growth exceeds 15% this quarter, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around user engagement and monetization strategies, which are essential for sustaining growth.
Bull confirmed if
User growth of 10% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A decline in revenue per user below $50 would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±27.37%
Historical Avg
±3.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±27.4% while COUR has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
82.2%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$11.4M
2,332,742 sh
1 insider
Sold
$52,643.99
10,308 sh
1 insider
Net
$11.3M
Net buying
Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
90.29%
of float
Insider
3.35%
of float
Holders
337
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
20,610,782 sh · $105.3M
7.80%
49.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Coursera beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.06%, confirming positive investor sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess growth prospects.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 1.06%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$11.4M
Net buying
$52,643.99
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 25, 2026 · @ $5.06
1,332,742 sh
$6.7M
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $4.61
1,000,000 sh
$4.6M
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $5.11
10,308 sh
$52,643.99
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Pale Fire Capital SE
20,432,950 sh · $104.4M
7.73%
94.4%
Caledonia (Private) Investments Pty Ltd
20,375,448 sh · $104.1M
7.71%
77.8%
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO
15,409,837 sh · $78.7M
5.83%
5.2%
NEA Management Company, LLC
12,867,769 sh · $65.8M
4.87%
Flat
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.