Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 19, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±9.9%
EPS beat rate
63%
Copart, Inc. is a leading provider of online vehicle auctions and remarketing services, primarily serving the automotive industry. As part of the industrials sector, Copart plays a crucial role in the growing trend of digital transactions and vehicle recycling, which is increasingly relevant in today's market.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Copart reported an EPS of $0.35, missing estimates by nearly 10%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 4% the following day, indicating market disappointment.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-0.14%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.28%
Overall, expectations for Copart's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. The market is cautious following recent earnings misses.
Bull case
The optimistic view hinges on a potential rebound in auction volume and improved profitability, which could lead to a positive surprise in EPS.
Bear case
Conversely, if Copart continues to miss earnings expectations, it may signal deeper operational issues, leading to further stock declines.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the reported auction volume for the quarter?
Auction volume is a critical indicator of demand and operational efficiency, and any significant changes could impact future guidance.
Q2
How does management plan to address recent earnings misses?
Understanding management's strategy for improving performance is essential for assessing the company's future prospects and investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±14.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Copart's ability to rebound from recent misses, particularly if auction volumes show unexpected strength.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 10.25% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not materialize if performance stabilizes.
Copart has a history of beating EPS estimates 75% of the time, suggesting potential for a surprise.
Recent trends in the automotive market could indicate a rebound in demand that the Street is not fully accounting for.
Key risk
If auction volume exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around Copart's ability to recover from recent earnings misses and improve operational performance.
Bull confirmed if
A significant increase in auction volume, exceeding previous quarters, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
Continued declines in EPS and auction volume would validate the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.25%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.9% while CPRT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
35.3%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.3%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Copart beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.09%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.13%, reinforcing concerns about operational challenges.
The lines on the call that would change the story.