Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.07
EPS est.
$-0.44
EPS surprise
+84.09%
1-day move
+9.53%
Castle Biosciences reported a better-than-expected EPS, which contributed to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising by 9.53%. However, the company did not provide revenue figures or guidance, leaving some uncertainty about future performance. Investors may view the EPS surprise as a sign of improved cost management or operational efficiency.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.07 | $-0.30 | +84.09% |
| Revenue | — | $90M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Castle Biosciences, Inc. is a healthcare company that focuses on providing diagnostic tests and services to improve patient outcomes in skin cancer and other diseases. With a market cap of $1 billion, it plays a significant role in the health care services sector, particularly in personalized medicine and precision diagnostics.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Castle Biosciences reported an EPS of $-0.49, which was better than the expected $-0.56, resulting in a positive surprise of 12.5%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.61% the next day.
EPS beat streak
5Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
-24.97%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.94%
Analysts are expecting Castle Biosciences to report a loss of $-0.30 per share on revenues of $90 million for Q2 2026. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or improvement in its financial performance.
Bull case
If Castle Biosciences can exceed revenue expectations and show a smaller loss than anticipated, it could signal strong demand for its diagnostic services, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or reports a wider loss, it may raise concerns about its growth prospects and market position, leading to a negative reaction from investors.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.30Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$90MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Castle Biosciences achieve revenue of at least $90 million?
Meeting or exceeding this revenue target is crucial for validating the company's growth strategy and market demand for its services.
Q2
What specific factors contributed to the expected EPS loss of $-0.30?
Understanding the reasons behind the anticipated loss will help investors gauge the company's operational efficiency and future profitability.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±14.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for Castle Biosciences to leverage recent product developments, which could drive higher-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
The company's recent performance has shown a strong ability to surprise on the upside, with an 88% EPS beat rate historically.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that the market may be overly cautious about potential outcomes.
Key risk
If revenue surpasses $90 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor expectations positively.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it will reflect how well Castle Biosciences is navigating its growth strategy amidst market challenges.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth exceeding $90 million would confirm strong demand and operational success.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than $-0.30 could signal deeper issues in the company's financial health.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±29.41%
Historical Avg
±3.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±29.4% while CSTL has averaged ±3.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
88.6%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$897,010.68
25,226 sh
3 insiders
Net
$897,010.68
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 7 open-market trades
$515,564.74
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
91.02%
of float
Insider
2.40%
of float
Holders
259
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
3,291,963 sh · $108.6M
10.78%
10.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Castle Biosciences beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.02%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.10%, reflecting disappointment in the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$232,128.21
Net selling
$149,317.73
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $35.57
8,580 sh
$305,156.28
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $35.50
5,543 sh
$196,765.41
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $35.57
3,198 sh
$113,740.07
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $35.75
2,807 sh
$100,350.25
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $35.57
2,718 sh
$96,668.39
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
RTW Investments LP
2,778,335 sh · $91.7M
9.09%
0.7%
Principal Financial Group, Inc.
1,726,648 sh · $57.0M
5.65%
-2.4%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,226,497 sh · $40.5M
4.01%
4.2%
Acadian Asset Management. LLC
918,668 sh · $30.3M
3.01%
89.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.