Equity Profile

CVI

CVR Energy, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$3.3B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:26 PM EDT

CVR Energy Misses on EPS, Stock Up 4.53%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-1.24	$-0.66	-131.78%
Revenue	N/A	$1.8B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

CVR Energy Misses on EPS, Stock Up 4.53%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-1.24	$-0.66	-131.78%
Revenue	N/A	$1.8B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

CVR Energy's first quarter results showed a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about profitability. However, the stock reacted positively, increasing by 4.53%. This could indicate that investors are optimistic about future performance or other factors not reflected in the earnings report.

Company Snapshot

CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well CVI is managing costs in a challenging market.

-0.66

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its refined products.

1.8B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a player in the energy market, its performance is closely tied to oil prices and refining margins, making it a key company to watch amid fluctuating energy demands.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-112.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, CVR Energy reported an EPS of -0.80, slightly better than expectations. The stock reacted with a minor decline of 0.71% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a challenging quarter for CVR Energy, with a consensus EPS of -0.66. The market is cautious due to previous earnings misses and the volatile nature of oil prices.

Bull Case

If CVI can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal improved operational efficiency and a rebound in refining margins.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger-than-expected loss or lower revenue, it could indicate ongoing struggles in a tough energy market, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-0.66

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well CVI is managing costs in a challenging market.

Revenue

1.8B

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its refined products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will CVI's EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of -0.66?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which would be a positive signal to investors.

What revenue figure will CVI report, and how does it compare to the consensus of $1.8B?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand for CVI's products and overall market conditions in the refining sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is overly pessimistic, expecting a significant loss, but CVI's recent operational improvements and favorable refining margins could lead to a surprise profit.

Supporting Evidence

CVI has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 63% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for volatility that may not align with current expectations.

Key Risk

If refining margins improve significantly, it could lead to better-than-expected revenue and EPS.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether CVI can stabilize its financial performance amidst fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of -0.52 or better, along with revenue exceeding $1.9B, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -1.06 and revenue below $1.5B would suggest ongoing challenges in the refining market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.75%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.9% while CVI has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

60.7%

Calls (192K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (24K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 20 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 9 of 20 faded and 11 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.6%, with a raw directional average of +0.8% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CVI beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.16% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to muted stock movement as investors await further commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.98% on the first day, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and how they are impacting profitability.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness in the current market.
3Insights into demand trends for refined products and any changes in customer behavior.
4Management's outlook on oil prices and their anticipated impact on future earnings.
5Any commentary on operational improvements or challenges faced during the quarter.

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Company Snapshot

CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well CVI is managing costs in a challenging market.

-0.66

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its refined products.

1.8B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-112.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.34%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, CVR Energy reported an EPS of -0.80, slightly better than expectations. The stock reacted with a minor decline of 0.71% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a challenging quarter for CVR Energy, with a consensus EPS of -0.66. The market is cautious due to previous earnings misses and the volatile nature of oil prices.

Bull Case

If CVI can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal improved operational efficiency and a rebound in refining margins.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger-than-expected loss or lower revenue, it could indicate ongoing struggles in a tough energy market, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-0.66

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well CVI is managing costs in a challenging market.

Revenue

1.8B

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its refined products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will CVI's EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of -0.66?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which would be a positive signal to investors.

What revenue figure will CVI report, and how does it compare to the consensus of $1.8B?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand for CVI's products and overall market conditions in the refining sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is overly pessimistic, expecting a significant loss, but CVI's recent operational improvements and favorable refining margins could lead to a surprise profit.

Supporting Evidence

CVI has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 63% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for volatility that may not align with current expectations.

Key Risk

If refining margins improve significantly, it could lead to better-than-expected revenue and EPS.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether CVI can stabilize its financial performance amidst fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of -0.52 or better, along with revenue exceeding $1.9B, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -1.06 and revenue below $1.5B would suggest ongoing challenges in the refining market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.75%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.9% while CVI has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

60.7%

Calls (192K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (24K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 20 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CVI beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.16% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to muted stock movement as investors await further commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.98% on the first day, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and how they are impacting profitability.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness in the current market.
3Insights into demand trends for refined products and any changes in customer behavior.
4Management's outlook on oil prices and their anticipated impact on future earnings.
5Any commentary on operational improvements or challenges faced during the quarter.