Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
EPS actual
$-1.24
EPS est.
$-0.54
EPS surprise
-131.78%
1-day move
+4.53%
CVR Energy's first quarter results showed a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about profitability. However, the stock reacted positively, increasing by 4.53%. This could indicate that investors are optimistic about future performance or other factors not reflected in the earnings report.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-1.24 | $-0.66 | -131.78% |
| Revenue | N/A | $1.8B | N/A |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a player in the energy market, its performance is closely tied to oil prices and refining margins, making it a key company to watch amid fluctuating energy demands.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, CVR Energy reported an EPS of -0.80, slightly better than expectations. The stock reacted with a minor decline of 0.71% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-116.58%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.89%
Analysts expect a challenging quarter for CVR Energy, with a consensus EPS of -0.66. The market is cautious due to previous earnings misses and the volatile nature of oil prices.
Bull case
If CVI can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal improved operational efficiency and a rebound in refining margins.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports a larger-than-expected loss or lower revenue, it could indicate ongoing struggles in a tough energy market, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
-0.66Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well CVI is managing costs in a challenging market.
Revenue
1.8BRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its refined products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will CVI's EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of -0.66?
A beat on EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which would be a positive signal to investors.
Q2
What revenue figure will CVI report, and how does it compare to the consensus of $1.8B?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand for CVI's products and overall market conditions in the refining sector.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus is overly pessimistic, expecting a significant loss, but CVI's recent operational improvements and favorable refining margins could lead to a surprise profit.
Supporting evidence
CVI has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 63% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for volatility that may not align with current expectations.
Key risk
If refining margins improve significantly, it could lead to better-than-expected revenue and EPS.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether CVI can stabilize its financial performance amidst fluctuating oil prices.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of -0.52 or better, along with revenue exceeding $1.9B, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than -1.06 and revenue below $1.5B would suggest ongoing challenges in the refining market.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±14.75%
Historical Avg
±1.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±14.9% while CVI has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.9%
30d HV
60.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
Fade rate: 9 of 20 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 9 of 20 faded and 11 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.6%, with a raw directional average of +0.8% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
104.74%
of float
Insider
0.00%
of float
Holders
321
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Icahn Carl C
71,201,875 sh · $4.1B
70.83%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If CVI beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.16% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to muted stock movement as investors await further commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.98% on the first day, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
5,201,944 sh · $298.5M
5.17%
8.6%
State Street Corporation
2,153,498 sh · $123.6M
2.14%
11.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,079,500 sh · $119.3M
2.07%
-4.9%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
2,051,847 sh · $117.7M
2.04%
7.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.