Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Aug 5, 2026
EPS actual
$0.38
EPS est.
$0.60
EPS surprise
-36.67%
1-day move
+3.58%
CoreCivic's earnings report shows a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about the company's profitability. However, the stock reacted positively, rising by 3.58%. This could indicate that investors are looking beyond the EPS miss, possibly focusing on other factors or future potential.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.38 | N/A | -36.67% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) operates in the industrial sector, specifically focusing on security and alarm services. The company plays a significant role in the correctional and rehabilitation industry, managing facilities and providing services that are essential for public safety and security.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, CoreCivic reported an EPS of $0.38, which was significantly below the expected $0.56, resulting in a 31.53% surprise. Following the announcement, the stock rose by 9.01% the next day, indicating some investor optimism despite the miss.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-13.90%
Avg 1-day reaction
+4.92%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the mixed performance in previous quarters. The market is watching for signs of recovery in earnings and revenue growth.
Bull case
If CoreCivic can demonstrate improved operational efficiency and better-than-expected earnings, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, continued earnings misses or weak revenue growth could raise concerns about the company's long-term viability and lead to a decline in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.38?
Given the significant miss last quarter, the market will be closely watching for any signs of recovery in earnings.
Q2
What is the revenue outlook for the upcoming quarters?
Revenue growth is crucial for CoreCivic's future, and any guidance on this will heavily influence investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±12.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating the potential for CoreCivic to rebound from its recent earnings miss, as historical trends show that significant recovery is possible.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 20.71% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with past performance.
CoreCivic has a history of bouncing back after earnings misses, with the stock often recovering in subsequent quarters.
Key risk
If EPS comes in above $0.50, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether CoreCivic can stabilize its earnings and show growth in revenue after recent misses.
Bull confirmed if
Earnings per share exceeding $0.50 would confirm a positive outlook for the company.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.30 would indicate ongoing struggles and could lead to a significant sell-off.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±20.71%
Historical Avg
±6.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±20.7% while CXW has averaged ±6.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
46.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$400,250.00
12,500 sh
1 insider
Net
$400,250.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$400,250.00
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
91.25%
of float
Insider
2.15%
of float
Holders
365
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
15,818,214 sh · $503.3M
16.00%
-0.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If CoreCivic beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.14% on the first day, confirming a positive sentiment.
In line / cautious
If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest the news.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 9.28% following earnings misses.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $32.02
12,500 sh
$400,250.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
River Road Asset Management, LLC
7,246,570 sh · $230.6M
7.33%
-19.6%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
6,831,934 sh · $217.4M
6.91%
-1.7%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
4,676,261 sh · $148.8M
4.73%
41.8%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
4,286,995 sh · $136.4M
4.33%
0.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.