Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.44
Est. revenue
$1.8B
Implied move
±4.8%
EPS beat rate
13%
Dana Incorporated (DAN) is a key player in the automotive parts and equipment sector, focusing on providing innovative solutions for vehicle manufacturers. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company is influenced by trends in consumer spending and the ongoing shift towards electric vehicles.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Dana reported an EPS of $0.07, significantly below the expected $0.26, leading to a stock increase of 7.64% the following day. This performance raised concerns about the company's ability to meet future expectations.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
13%
Avg EPS surprise
-280.13%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.02%
Analysts expect Dana to report an EPS of $0.44 and revenue of $1.8 billion for Q1-2026, reflecting cautious optimism following previous earnings misses. The market is watching closely for any signs of recovery in profitability.
Bull case
If Dana can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in operations and boost investor confidence in the company's future.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment, especially given its recent performance history.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
0.44EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue
1.8BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed $0.44, indicating a recovery in profitability?
Exceeding this EPS estimate would signal to investors that the company is on a positive trajectory after recent disappointments.
Q2
What are the revenue figures, and do they align with the $1.8 billion consensus?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand for Dana's products and overall market health, impacting future growth prospects.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Dana to rebound, given its recent focus on cost-cutting and operational efficiency improvements.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 4.79% move, but the stock has historically moved more than 6% following earnings.
The recent stock price increase after disappointing earnings suggests some investor optimism.
Key risk
If EPS comes in above $0.44, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Dana can overcome its recent performance issues and regain investor confidence.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.45 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.40 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing struggles.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.79%
Historical Avg
±6.4%
The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.79%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±4.8% while DAN has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
30d HV
38.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 16 of 28 (57%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 16 of 28 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.4% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.33%
of float
Insider
1.55%
of float
Holders
460
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
18,255,820 sh · $511.5M
16.97%
5.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Dana beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.64%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.28%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
8,280,881 sh · $232.0M
7.70%
-1.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
7,783,860 sh · $218.1M
7.24%
-1.5%
American Century Companies Inc
6,319,632 sh · $177.1M
5.87%
2.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
4,896,233 sh · $137.2M
4.55%
-5.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.