Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 21, 2026
EPS actual
$6.55
EPS est.
$5.81
EPS surprise
+12.74%
1-day move
-5.19%
Deere & Company reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which indicates strong profitability. However, the stock reaction remained flat, suggesting that investors may have already priced in these results or are awaiting further information. The lack of revenue data and guidance may have contributed to the muted stock performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $6.55 | $5.71 | +12.74% |
| Revenue | — | $11.5B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Deere & Company (DE) is a leading manufacturer of agricultural and farm machinery, playing a crucial role in the industrial sector. With a market cap of $152 billion, the company is significant in supporting global food production and agricultural efficiency.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Deere reported an EPS of $2.42, exceeding expectations by 26.17%. The stock reacted positively, rising 11.58% the following day.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+9.81%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.32%
Analysts expect Deere to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $5.71. The outlook remains optimistic due to strong agricultural demand.
Bull case
If Deere beats EPS estimates, it could signal robust demand and effective cost management, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if earnings fall short, it may raise concerns about slowing demand in the agricultural sector, leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$5.71Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$11.5BRevenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for Deere's products in the agricultural market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Deere's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $5.71?
A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What insights can management provide about revenue growth in the agricultural sector?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge demand and market conditions, which are critical for future performance.
—
Est. EPS
$1.35
Est. Rev
$406M
Impl. Move
±7.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Deere's ability to capitalize on strong agricultural demand, especially given recent performance trends.
Supporting evidence
Deere has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate in the last 8 quarters.
The options market is pricing in a 5.77% move, which aligns with historical volatility, suggesting the potential for a larger reaction.
Recent agricultural trends indicate a growing demand for machinery, which may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Deere can maintain its growth trajectory amid fluctuating agricultural demand.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $6.00 or higher would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $5.33 would raise concerns about demand and cost management.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.77%
Historical Avg
±6.3%
The options market is pricing in a move of about 5.77%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±5.6% while DE has averaged ±6.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.9%
30d HV
31.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 8 of 26 (31%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 26 (69%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Deere beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.79%, confirming strong demand.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors await further clarity on future growth.
Miss
If earnings miss, the stock could drop by about 6.22%, reflecting concerns over demand and profitability.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.