Equity Profile

DHI

D.R. Horton, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryHomebuilding$41.9B

Jul21Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

D.R. Horton, Inc....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of the company's profitability, and investors will be keen to see if D.R. Horton can continue to deliver strong earnings.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to increase sales and capture market share in a competitive housing market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DHI Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

D.R. Horton, Inc. is a leading homebuilder in the U.S., focusing on constructing single-family homes. As a key player in the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to housing market trends and consumer spending patterns.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.98%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2026, D.R. Horton reported an EPS of $2.24, beating estimates by nearly 4%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.78% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for D.R. Horton are mixed, with some analysts optimistic about continued demand for housing, while others are cautious due to rising interest rates.

Bull Case

The bullish view hinges on strong housing demand and the company's ability to manage costs effectively, potentially leading to higher margins and earnings.

Bear Case

Conversely, the bearish perspective is concerned about potential slowdowns in home sales due to economic headwinds and increased competition in the housing market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q3-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will significantly influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How does D.R. Horton plan to address potential challenges in the housing market?

Management's strategy in response to market conditions will be crucial for future growth and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the resilience of the housing market, especially in regions with strong job growth, which could lead to better-than-expected sales figures.

Supporting Evidence

D.R. Horton has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent trends in new home sales have shown signs of recovery, which may not be fully reflected in current market sentiment.

Key Risk

If new home sales exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether D.R. Horton can maintain its profitability amid fluctuating market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS of $2.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, suggesting strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.00 would confirm the bear case, indicating potential struggles in the current housing market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.15%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while DHI has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.4%

Calls (182K)P/C Ratio: 1.66Puts (45K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If D.R. Horton beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 6.24%, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of about 2.43%, reflecting investor concerns about market conditions.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new home sales trends and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into regional performance, particularly in high-demand markets.
4Management's outlook on interest rates and their potential impact on homebuyer demand.
5Any commentary on supply chain issues and how they are being addressed.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

D.R. Horton, Inc....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of the company's profitability, and investors will be keen to see if D.R. Horton can continue to deliver strong earnings.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to increase sales and capture market share in a competitive housing market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DHI Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.98%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2026, D.R. Horton reported an EPS of $2.24, beating estimates by nearly 4%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.78% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for D.R. Horton are mixed, with some analysts optimistic about continued demand for housing, while others are cautious due to rising interest rates.

Bull Case

The bullish view hinges on strong housing demand and the company's ability to manage costs effectively, potentially leading to higher margins and earnings.

Bear Case

Conversely, the bearish perspective is concerned about potential slowdowns in home sales due to economic headwinds and increased competition in the housing market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q3-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will significantly influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How does D.R. Horton plan to address potential challenges in the housing market?

Management's strategy in response to market conditions will be crucial for future growth and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the resilience of the housing market, especially in regions with strong job growth, which could lead to better-than-expected sales figures.

Supporting Evidence

D.R. Horton has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent trends in new home sales have shown signs of recovery, which may not be fully reflected in current market sentiment.

Key Risk

If new home sales exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether D.R. Horton can maintain its profitability amid fluctuating market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS of $2.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, suggesting strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.00 would confirm the bear case, indicating potential struggles in the current housing market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.15%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while DHI has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.4%

Calls (182K)P/C Ratio: 1.66Puts (45K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If D.R. Horton beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 6.24%, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of about 2.43%, reflecting investor concerns about market conditions.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new home sales trends and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into regional performance, particularly in high-demand markets.
4Management's outlook on interest rates and their potential impact on homebuyer demand.
5Any commentary on supply chain issues and how they are being addressed.