Energy·Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing·$10.9B
HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a significant player in this industry, its performance can be influenced by global oil prices, refining margins, and consumer demand for fuel.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
Revenue reflects the company's sales performance and is crucial for assessing growth and market demand.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
4Q
EPS Beat Rate
88%
Avg EPS Surprise
+50.37%
Avg Stock Reaction
-1.67%
In Q4 2025, HF Sinclair reported an EPS of $1.20, significantly exceeding expectations. However, despite the strong earnings surprise, the stock fell by 10.86% the following day, indicating potential market concerns.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect a challenging quarter for HF Sinclair, with a consensus EPS of negative $0.05. This reflects concerns about refining margins and overall market conditions.
Bull Case
If the company can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may signal improved operational efficiency and market demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company posts a larger-than-expected loss or lower revenue, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate current market challenges, leading to further stock declines.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$-0.05EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$6.9BRevenue reflects the company's sales performance and is crucial for assessing growth and market demand.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.05?
A better-than-expected EPS could indicate stronger operational performance and improve market sentiment.
Q2
What is the revenue outlook compared to the consensus of $6.9B?
Revenue performance is crucial for assessing the company's growth trajectory and ability to manage costs in a challenging market.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for HF Sinclair to leverage operational efficiencies, which could lead to better-than-expected results despite current market pressures.
Supporting Evidence
HF Sinclair has historically beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time, suggesting a strong track record of performance.
The company's recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.
The stock's recent price action indicates that investors may be overly cautious ahead of the earnings report.
Key Risk
If revenue comes in above $7.5B, it could significantly shift market sentiment and challenge the current bearish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether HF Sinclair can maintain profitability amidst fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.03 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating strong cost management and demand.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS worse than $-0.19 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.
Implied Move
±4.2%
The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.2%, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility around the earnings report.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.9%, confirming improved operational performance.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.1%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's ability to navigate market challenges.
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ROBINHOOD MKTS INC Class A
Apr 28, 2026