Equity Profile

DUOL

Duolingo, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryEducation Services$6.7B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Duolingo, Inc. is a leading language-learning platform that offers courses in various languages through its app and website....

Key Metrics to Watch

User Growth

Tracking user growth is crucial as it reflects the platform's popularity and potential for revenue generation.

N/A

Subscription Revenue

This metric indicates how well Duolingo is converting free users to paid subscribers, which is vital for profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DUOL Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Duolingo, Inc. is a leading language-learning platform that offers courses in various languages through its app and website. As part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, it benefits from trends in digital education and consumer spending on self-improvement.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+133.51%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Duolingo reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.89, exceeding expectations by nearly 13%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding course offerings and improving user engagement.
Commitment to enhancing the app's user experience.
Plans to invest in marketing to attract new users.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Duolingo's upcoming earnings report, especially given the company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If Duolingo continues its trend of user growth and subscription revenue increases, it could see a significant boost in stock price.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if user growth stagnates or subscription conversions decline, the stock could face downward pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current user growth rate compared to previous quarters?

User growth is a key indicator of Duolingo's market position and future revenue potential.

How has subscription revenue changed since last quarter?

Changes in subscription revenue will directly impact profitability and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Duolingo's ability to innovate and attract new users, especially with recent enhancements to its platform.

Supporting Evidence

The company's consistent track record of beating EPS estimates suggests strong operational performance.

Options pricing indicates high volatility, which may reflect underlying investor confidence in the company's growth potential.

Key Risk

If user growth fails to meet expectations, it could significantly undermine the bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on user engagement and conversion metrics, which are critical for Duolingo's growth strategy.

Bull Confirmed If

A user growth rate exceeding 15% would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If subscription revenue declines by more than 5%, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±24.3%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±24.3% while DUOL has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

51.0%

Calls (273K)P/C Ratio: 0.26Puts (84K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

94.33%

of float

Insider

1.31%

of float

Holders

649

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO
4,861,445 sh · $502.9M
12.03%
71.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Duolingo beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.47%, confirming positive investor sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management offers cautious commentary, the stock may see limited movement as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.87%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on user engagement metrics and any changes in user growth strategy.
2Details on subscription revenue trends and conversion rates from free to paid users.
3Insights into new course offerings and their expected impact on user retention.
4Management's commentary on competitive landscape and market positioning.
5Any guidance on future marketing initiatives aimed at user acquisition.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Duolingo, Inc. is a leading language-learning platform that offers courses in various languages through its app and website....

Key Metrics to Watch

User Growth

Tracking user growth is crucial as it reflects the platform's popularity and potential for revenue generation.

N/A

Subscription Revenue

This metric indicates how well Duolingo is converting free users to paid subscribers, which is vital for profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DUOL Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+133.51%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Duolingo reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.89, exceeding expectations by nearly 13%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding course offerings and improving user engagement.
Commitment to enhancing the app's user experience.
Plans to invest in marketing to attract new users.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Duolingo's upcoming earnings report, especially given the company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If Duolingo continues its trend of user growth and subscription revenue increases, it could see a significant boost in stock price.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if user growth stagnates or subscription conversions decline, the stock could face downward pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current user growth rate compared to previous quarters?

User growth is a key indicator of Duolingo's market position and future revenue potential.

How has subscription revenue changed since last quarter?

Changes in subscription revenue will directly impact profitability and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Duolingo's ability to innovate and attract new users, especially with recent enhancements to its platform.

Supporting Evidence

The company's consistent track record of beating EPS estimates suggests strong operational performance.

Options pricing indicates high volatility, which may reflect underlying investor confidence in the company's growth potential.

Key Risk

If user growth fails to meet expectations, it could significantly undermine the bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on user engagement and conversion metrics, which are critical for Duolingo's growth strategy.

Bull Confirmed If

A user growth rate exceeding 15% would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If subscription revenue declines by more than 5%, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±24.3%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±24.3% while DUOL has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

51.0%

Calls (273K)P/C Ratio: 0.26Puts (84K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

94.33%

of float

Insider

1.31%

of float

Holders

649

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO
4,861,445 sh · $502.9M
12.03%
71.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Duolingo beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.47%, confirming positive investor sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management offers cautious commentary, the stock may see limited movement as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.87%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on user engagement metrics and any changes in user growth strategy.
2Details on subscription revenue trends and conversion rates from free to paid users.
3Insights into new course offerings and their expected impact on user retention.
4Management's commentary on competitive landscape and market positioning.
5Any guidance on future marketing initiatives aimed at user acquisition.