Post-earnings recap
Reported
Fri, May 8, 2026
EPS actual
$0.19
EPS est.
$0.29
EPS surprise
-36.66%
1-day move
-11.28%
Embraer reported earnings that fell short of expectations, particularly in EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about profitability. Despite the miss, the stock saw a slight increase of 0.12%, indicating that investors may have had lower expectations or are reacting positively to other factors not detailed in the earnings report. The lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the company's future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.19 | $0.24 | -36.66% |
| Revenue | — | $1.4B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Embraer S.A. is a Brazilian aerospace company that designs and manufactures commercial, military, executive, and agricultural aircraft. As a key player in the aerospace and defense sector, Embraer is significant for its innovative technologies and contributions to the global aviation market.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Embraer reported an EPS of $0.45, significantly exceeding expectations of $0.17, marking a 164% surprise. However, the stock fell by 7.19% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
67%
Avg EPS surprise
+73.87%
Avg 1-day reaction
-5.80%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Embraer's upcoming earnings, with expectations of solid EPS and revenue figures. However, the recent stock performance raises concerns about sustainability.
Bull case
If Embraer meets or exceeds the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, any miss on earnings or revenue could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the recent history of stock volatility.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.24Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$1.4BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.24?
A strong EPS performance could validate the company's growth strategy and improve market sentiment.
Q2
What are the revenue figures compared to the consensus of $1.4B?
Revenue performance is critical to understanding demand for Embraer's products and overall business health.
—
Est. EPS
$1.79
Est. Rev
$8.5B
Impl. Move
±3.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the potential for Embraer to exceed revenue expectations due to recent contract wins and increased demand in the aerospace sector.
Supporting evidence
The last quarter's EPS surprise indicates a strong operational performance that could continue.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting uncertainty that could work in Embraer's favor if results are strong.
Key risk
If revenue exceeds $1.5B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Embraer's recent performance can be sustained amid competitive pressures and economic conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.28 or higher would confirm strong earnings growth.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.20 would raise concerns about the company's profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.97%
Historical Avg
±6.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.0% while EMBJ has averaged ±6.5% over the last 3 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
45.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat setup in Industrials
Fade rate: 0 of 30 (0%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.4% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Embraer beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 7.19%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further commentary.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical data suggesting a potential drop of around 7.19%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.