Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.60
EPS est.
$0.62
EPS surprise
-3.07%
1-day move
+10.11%
Etsy's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about profitability. The stock reaction remained neutral, indicating that investors may have anticipated a challenging quarter. Management's focus on long-term growth suggests they are prioritizing future potential over short-term results.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.60 | $1.16 | -3.07% |
| Revenue | N/A | $617M | N/A |
Management acknowledged the disappointing EPS results but emphasized their commitment to long-term strategies. They highlighted ongoing investments in the platform.
We are focused on long-term growth despite the current challenges.
Our marketplace continues to evolve, and we are investing in key areas.
Etsy, Inc. is an online marketplace that connects buyers and sellers of handmade, vintage, and unique goods. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, Etsy benefits from trends in e-commerce and consumer spending, making it an important platform for small businesses and artisans.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Etsy reported an EPS of $0.92, exceeding expectations by 4.31%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 9.28% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-26.17%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.75%
Analysts expect Etsy to report solid earnings driven by continued consumer interest in unique products. However, there are concerns about competition and market saturation.
Bull case
If Etsy exceeds EPS and revenue expectations, it could signal strong demand and effective management strategies, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
If Etsy fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about its growth potential and competitive position, resulting in a negative market response.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$1.16EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue
$617MRevenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, which is crucial for its long-term success.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.16?
A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What is the revenue outlook for the next quarter?
Guidance on revenue will provide insights into future growth potential and market demand.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Etsy's ability to leverage its unique marketplace to drive higher sales, especially in niche categories.
Supporting evidence
Etsy's recent marketing initiatives may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
The strong performance in Q4-2025 suggests a positive trend that could continue into this quarter.
Insider selling could indicate a strategic shift rather than a lack of confidence in the company's future.
Key risk
If Etsy's revenue exceeds $617 million, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is crucial as it will reflect Etsy's ability to sustain growth amidst increasing competition.
Bull confirmed if
Earnings exceeding $1.16 per share with revenue above $617 million would confirm the bullish case.
Bear confirmed if
Earnings falling below $1.16 per share or revenue below $608 million would support the bearish outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.52%
Historical Avg
±6.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±11.1% while ETSY has averaged ±6.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.5%
30d HV
46.6%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$569,906.64
7,958 sh
3 insiders
Net
$569,906.64
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 6 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
126.54%
of float
Insider
1.38%
of float
Holders
725
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
12,615,866 sh · $901.9M
13.29%
-4.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Etsy beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.5%, confirming strong demand and effective strategies.
In line / cautious
If results are in line, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors assess management's commentary on future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about 0.1% following earnings misses.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$151,412.70
Net selling
$318,889.34
Net selling
$99,604.60
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $71.26
4,178 sh
$297,724.28
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $71.35
1,396 sh
$99,604.60
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $72.71
958 sh
$69,656.18
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $71.86
858 sh
$61,655.88
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $71.99
294 sh
$21,165.06
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Renaissance Technologies, LLC
5,990,442 sh · $428.3M
6.31%
0.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
5,561,096 sh · $397.6M
5.86%
1.0%
Elliott Investment Management L.P.
5,000,000 sh · $357.4M
5.27%
Flat
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
4,286,571 sh · $306.4M
4.52%
2.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.