Equity Profile

FAST

Fastenal Company

IndustrialsTrading Companies & Distributors$53.6B

Apr13Mon

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:50 AM EDT

Fastenal Misses on EPS, Stock Down 6.85%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.30	N/A	+0.00%
Revenue	N/A	N/A	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Fastenal Misses on EPS, Stock Down 6.85%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.30	N/A	+0.00%
Revenue	N/A	N/A	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Defensive

Management expressed concerns about market conditions affecting growth. They highlighted the importance of maintaining operational efficiency amid challenges.

Management noted ongoing challenges in the supply chain.

They emphasized a focus on cost control and efficiency.

There was no guidance provided for future quarters.

What It Means

Fastenal's earnings report reflects ongoing challenges in the retail environment, particularly in supply chain management. The stock's 6.85% decline indicates investor concerns about future performance, especially given the lack of revenue data and guidance. The company's focus on cost control suggests they are preparing for a potentially tough market ahead.

Company Snapshot

Fastenal Co (FAST) is a leading distributor of industrial and construction supplies, providing a wide range of products including fasteners, tools, and safety equipment. As a major player in the industrial sector, the company's performance is closely tied to trends in manufacturing and construction activity, making it an important barometer for the overall economy.

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial to assess how well Fastenal is capturing market demand and expanding its customer base.

N/A

Gross Margin

Gross margin indicates the efficiency of Fastenal in managing its production and supply chain costs, impacting overall profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Fastenal reported an EPS of $0.26, matching expectations but showing a slight decline in stock price the following day. The company has faced challenges in meeting revenue expectations, which may impact investor sentiment going forward.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Fastenal's upcoming earnings are cautious, given recent performance and the lack of analyst estimates. Investors are keen to see if the company can improve on its previous results and provide clearer guidance.

Bull Case

If Fastenal can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve its gross margins, it could signal a robust recovery in demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing earnings or weak guidance, it could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth will be a key indicator of demand trends and overall business health, influencing investor sentiment significantly.

How is Fastenal managing its gross margins in the current economic environment?

Understanding margin management will provide insights into the company's operational efficiency and pricing power amidst rising costs.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Fastenal's ability to leverage its supply chain efficiencies to drive margins higher, despite recent challenges.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows that Fastenal has a 50% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a lower expected move than historical averages, hinting at potential undervaluation.

Recent trends in manufacturing suggest a rebound in demand that Fastenal could capitalize on.

Key Risk

If gross margins improve significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Fastenal can sustain growth and profitability in a challenging economic landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in gross margins below 30% would confirm the bear case, suggesting increased cost pressures.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.3%

Historical Avg

±4.3%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a relatively modest move of around 3.3%, suggesting that investors are uncertain about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing a smaller move than the historical average, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.

Detail

30d HV

26.2%

Calls (181K)P/C Ratio: 0.14Puts (26K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Fastenal beats earnings expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.2%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to a muted response, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 1.8%, further impacting investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain improvements and their impact on costs.
2Details on customer demand trends in key sectors like construction and manufacturing.
3Insights into pricing strategies and how they are affecting margins.
4Management's outlook on economic conditions and potential impacts on future performance.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial to assess how well Fastenal is capturing market demand and expanding its customer base.

N/A

Gross Margin

Gross margin indicates the efficiency of Fastenal in managing its production and supply chain costs, impacting overall profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Fastenal can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve its gross margins, it could signal a robust recovery in demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing earnings or weak guidance, it could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth will be a key indicator of demand trends and overall business health, influencing investor sentiment significantly.

How is Fastenal managing its gross margins in the current economic environment?

Understanding margin management will provide insights into the company's operational efficiency and pricing power amidst rising costs.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Fastenal's ability to leverage its supply chain efficiencies to drive margins higher, despite recent challenges.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows that Fastenal has a 50% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a lower expected move than historical averages, hinting at potential undervaluation.

Recent trends in manufacturing suggest a rebound in demand that Fastenal could capitalize on.

Key Risk

If gross margins improve significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Fastenal can sustain growth and profitability in a challenging economic landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in gross margins below 30% would confirm the bear case, suggesting increased cost pressures.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.3%

Historical Avg

±4.3%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a relatively modest move of around 3.3%, suggesting that investors are uncertain about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing a smaller move than the historical average, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.

Detail

30d HV

26.2%

Calls (181K)P/C Ratio: 0.14Puts (26K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Fastenal beats earnings expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.2%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to a muted response, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 1.8%, further impacting investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain improvements and their impact on costs.
2Details on customer demand trends in key sectors like construction and manufacturing.
3Insights into pricing strategies and how they are affecting margins.
4Management's outlook on economic conditions and potential impacts on future performance.