Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, Apr 13, 2026
EPS actual
$0.30
EPS est.
$0.30
EPS surprise
+0.00%
1-day move
-6.85%
Fastenal's earnings report reflects ongoing challenges in the retail environment, particularly in supply chain management. The stock's 6.85% decline indicates investor concerns about future performance, especially given the lack of revenue data and guidance. The company's focus on cost control suggests they are preparing for a potentially tough market ahead.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.30 | N/A | +0.00% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Management expressed concerns about market conditions affecting growth. They highlighted the importance of maintaining operational efficiency amid challenges.
Management noted ongoing challenges in the supply chain.
They emphasized a focus on cost control and efficiency.
There was no guidance provided for future quarters.
Fastenal Co (FAST) is a leading distributor of industrial and construction supplies, providing a wide range of products including fasteners, tools, and safety equipment. As a major player in the industrial sector, the company's performance is closely tied to trends in manufacturing and construction activity, making it an important barometer for the overall economy.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Fastenal reported an EPS of $0.26, matching expectations but showing a slight decline in stock price the following day. The company has faced challenges in meeting revenue expectations, which may impact investor sentiment going forward.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-6.48%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.32%
Overall, expectations for Fastenal's upcoming earnings are cautious, given recent performance and the lack of analyst estimates. Investors are keen to see if the company can improve on its previous results and provide clearer guidance.
Bull case
If Fastenal can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve its gross margins, it could signal a robust recovery in demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports disappointing earnings or weak guidance, it could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant decline in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?
Revenue growth will be a key indicator of demand trends and overall business health, influencing investor sentiment significantly.
Q2
How is Fastenal managing its gross margins in the current economic environment?
Understanding margin management will provide insights into the company's operational efficiency and pricing power amidst rising costs.
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
—
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating Fastenal's ability to leverage its supply chain efficiencies to drive margins higher, despite recent challenges.
Supporting evidence
Historical data shows that Fastenal has a 50% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.
Options pricing suggests a lower expected move than historical averages, hinting at potential undervaluation.
Recent trends in manufacturing suggest a rebound in demand that Fastenal could capitalize on.
Key risk
If gross margins improve significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of the stock.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Fastenal can sustain growth and profitability in a challenging economic landscape.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth exceeding 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand recovery.
Bear confirmed if
A decline in gross margins below 30% would confirm the bear case, suggesting increased cost pressures.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.3%
Historical Avg
±4.3%
The options market is pricing in a relatively modest move of around 3.3%, suggesting that investors are uncertain about the upcoming earnings report.
Options are pricing a smaller move than the historical average, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.
30d HV
26.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
87.32%
of float
Insider
0.09%
of float
Holders
1,930
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
106,297,179 sh · $5.3B
9.26%
1.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Fastenal beats earnings expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.2%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to a muted response, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 1.8%, further impacting investor confidence.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
74,919,565 sh · $3.7B
6.53%
0.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
64,893,489 sh · $3.2B
5.66%
0.7%
State Street Corporation
56,438,968 sh · $2.8B
4.92%
1.6%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
42,893,434 sh · $2.1B
3.74%
8.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.