Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 14, 2026
EPS actual
$0.33
EPS est.
$0.33
EPS surprise
+0.30%
1-day move
-2.78%
Fastenal's earnings report showed that they met EPS expectations, but there was no revenue figure provided, which may have raised concerns among investors. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.78%, likely due to the lack of revenue details and future guidance. Investors will be looking for more clarity in upcoming communications from the company.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.33 | $0.33 | +0.30% |
| Revenue | — | $2.3B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Fastenal Company is a leading distributor of industrial and construction supplies, operating primarily in the trading companies and distributors sector. With a market cap of $59 billion, it plays a vital role in the supply chain for various industries, benefiting from trends in infrastructure spending and manufacturing growth.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Fastenal reported an EPS of $0.30, matching analyst expectations. However, the stock fell by 6.85% the following day, indicating market disappointment despite meeting estimates.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-6.48%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.32%
Analysts expect Fastenal to report steady earnings and revenue for Q2 2026, with a consensus EPS of $0.33 and revenue of $2.3 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth amid economic uncertainties.
Bull case
If Fastenal can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations or provides weak guidance, it may signal underlying challenges in demand or increased competition, leading to a negative impact on the stock.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
0.33EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
2.3BRevenue growth reflects demand for Fastenal's products and services, which is crucial for assessing overall business performance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Fastenal's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.33?
A higher EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected demand and operational efficiency, positively impacting investor sentiment.
Q2
What revenue growth can Fastenal report relative to the $2.3 billion consensus?
Revenue performance is crucial for assessing the company's market position and demand trends, influencing future guidance.
—
Est. EPS
$1.15
Est. Rev
$178M
Impl. Move
±7.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Fastenal's ability to leverage its supply chain efficiencies and capitalize on increased infrastructure spending.
Supporting evidence
Recent trends in construction and manufacturing suggest a rebound in demand for industrial supplies, which Fastenal is well-positioned to capture.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.
Fastenal's historical performance shows resilience even in challenging quarters, suggesting it may outperform expectations.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly exceeds $2.3 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Fastenal can maintain its growth trajectory amid economic pressures.
Bull confirmed if
Exceeding $0.33 EPS with revenue above $2.3 billion would confirm strong demand and operational success.
Bear confirmed if
Falling below the consensus EPS of $0.33 and revenue of $2.3 billion would raise concerns about demand and market competitiveness.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.65%
Historical Avg
±5.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±6.7% while FAST has averaged ±5.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
20.8%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
87.32%
of float
Insider
0.09%
of float
Holders
1,930
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
106,297,179 sh · $5.3B
9.26%
1.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Fastenal beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.1%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions as investors weigh management's commentary against current market conditions.
Miss
If the company misses estimates, history indicates a potential decline of about 2.1%, reflecting market disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
74,919,565 sh · $3.7B
6.53%
0.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
64,893,489 sh · $3.2B
5.66%
0.7%
State Street Corporation
56,438,968 sh · $2.8B
4.92%
1.6%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
42,893,434 sh · $2.1B
3.74%
8.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.