Equity Profile

FAST

Fastenal Company

IndustrialsTrading Companies & Distributors$54.0B

Jul13Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Fastenal Company operates in the industrial sector, focusing on trading and distributing a wide range of products, including fasteners and other industrial supplies. As a key player in the supply chain, its performance can reflect broader trends in manufacturing and construction, making it significant for investors monitoring industrial activity.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and can influence investor sentiment.

0.33

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand.

2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FAST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Fastenal reported an EPS of $0.30, matching analyst expectations but showing little growth. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 6.85% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Fastenal to report stable earnings and revenue this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.33 and revenue of $2.3 billion. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of growth or challenges in the industrial sector.

Bull Case

If Fastenal exceeds expectations with strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand in the industrial sector, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about slowing demand and negatively impact the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.33

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and can influence investor sentiment.

Revenue

2.3B

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.33?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and boost investor confidence in the company's growth prospects.

What insights will management provide regarding revenue trends and market demand?

Understanding revenue drivers is crucial for assessing the company's performance in the current economic environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for revenue growth driven by increased industrial activity, which could lead to a positive surprise.

Supporting Evidence

Fastenal's recent performance has shown resilience despite broader economic challenges.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for an upside surprise.

Key Risk

If Fastenal's revenue growth exceeds $2.4 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Fastenal can maintain its growth trajectory amidst potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting EPS above $0.34 with revenue exceeding $2.4 billion would confirm the bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.32 or revenue falling short of $2.3 billion would support the bearish case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.65%

Historical Avg

±5.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.7% while FAST has averaged ±5.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.8%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.42Puts (13K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Fastenal beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.1%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 2.1%, raising concerns about demand.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on supply chain improvements and their impact on costs.
2Updates on demand trends in key sectors like construction and manufacturing.
3Insights into pricing strategies and how they are affecting margins.
4Management's outlook on future economic conditions and their potential impact on sales.
5Details on any new product lines or services that could drive growth.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and can influence investor sentiment.

0.33

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand.

2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FAST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.68%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Fastenal reported an EPS of $0.30, matching analyst expectations but showing little growth. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 6.85% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Fastenal exceeds expectations with strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand in the industrial sector, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about slowing demand and negatively impact the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.33

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and can influence investor sentiment.

Revenue

2.3B

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.33?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and boost investor confidence in the company's growth prospects.

What insights will management provide regarding revenue trends and market demand?

Understanding revenue drivers is crucial for assessing the company's performance in the current economic environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for revenue growth driven by increased industrial activity, which could lead to a positive surprise.

Supporting Evidence

Fastenal's recent performance has shown resilience despite broader economic challenges.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for an upside surprise.

Key Risk

If Fastenal's revenue growth exceeds $2.4 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Fastenal can maintain its growth trajectory amidst potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting EPS above $0.34 with revenue exceeding $2.4 billion would confirm the bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.32 or revenue falling short of $2.3 billion would support the bearish case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.65%

Historical Avg

±5.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.7% while FAST has averaged ±5.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.8%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.42Puts (13K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Fastenal beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.1%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 2.1%, raising concerns about demand.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on supply chain improvements and their impact on costs.
2Updates on demand trends in key sectors like construction and manufacturing.
3Insights into pricing strategies and how they are affecting margins.
4Management's outlook on future economic conditions and their potential impact on sales.
5Details on any new product lines or services that could drive growth.