Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±3.9%
EPS beat rate
88%
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is a diversified bank that provides a range of financial services, including loans, deposits, and investment products. With a market cap of $23 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly as consumer spending and interest rates fluctuate.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, First Citizens reported an EPS of $57.09, significantly exceeding expectations by 41.14%. This strong performance led to a 6.51% increase in stock price the following day.
EPS beat streak
7Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+13.06%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.75%
Investors are optimistic about First Citizens' upcoming earnings report, especially after a strong performance last quarter. However, the lack of analyst estimates leaves room for uncertainty.
Bull case
If the company continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could indicate strong operational efficiency and growth, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the bank fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing loan growth, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, as seen in past earnings misses.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for investor sentiment and stock performance.
Q2
How has the loan growth rate changed in the current economic environment?
Loan growth is a key driver of bank profitability, and any slowdown could raise concerns about future earnings.
—
Est. EPS
$1.38
Est. Rev
$2.3B
Impl. Move
±9.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the bank's ability to sustain loan growth despite economic challenges, leading to a potential upside surprise.
Supporting evidence
The bank has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management execution.
Options pricing suggests a modest move, which may not reflect the potential for a significant earnings surprise.
Historical performance shows that the bank has a strong track record of recovering from earnings misses.
Key risk
If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the bank's future earnings potential.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the bank's ability to maintain its earnings momentum against potential economic headwinds.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $60 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $50 could signal potential issues in profitability and growth, leading to negative market sentiment.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.39%
Historical Avg
±3.9%
The options market is pricing in a modest move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect some volatility but not dramatic changes.
Options are pricing ±3.9% while FCNCA has averaged ±3.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
20.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
68.43%
of float
Insider
25.38%
of float
Holders
835
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Harris Associates L.P.
919,347 sh · $1.9B
8.94%
-3.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If First Citizens beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise about 3.86% on the first day, confirming strong growth prospects.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a drop of around 9.73%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
859,143 sh · $1.8B
8.35%
-14.4%
Dodge & Cox Inc.
404,215 sh · $837.4M
3.93%
2.8%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
358,575 sh · $742.8M
3.49%
-7.4%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
312,316 sh · $647.0M
3.04%
-10.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.