Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, May 5, 2026
EPS actual
$2.28
EPS est.
$2.14
EPS surprise
+6.69%
1-day move
-3.06%
Ferguson Enterprises reported a better-than-expected EPS for the first quarter of 2026, but there was no revenue figure disclosed. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.06%, which may reflect investor concerns despite the earnings beat. The lack of guidance and additional context from management could also be contributing factors to the stock's decline.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.28 | N/A | +6.69% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products, serving both residential and commercial markets. As a major player in the industrial sector, it benefits from trends in construction and home improvement, making its performance relevant to investors focused on economic recovery and infrastructure spending.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Ferguson reported an EPS of $3.48, significantly beating estimates by 22.49%. The stock reacted positively, gaining nearly 8% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
71%
Avg EPS surprise
+7.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
+2.03%
Overall, expectations for Ferguson's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors looking for signs of continued growth amid economic uncertainties.
Bull case
If Ferguson can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or exceed its previous EPS surprises, it could signal robust market demand and operational strength.
Bear case
Conversely, any signs of declining demand or lower-than-expected EPS could raise concerns about the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $3.48?
The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether Ferguson can maintain its growth momentum and investor confidence.
Q2
How is the company addressing current market demand trends, particularly in the residential and commercial sectors?
Understanding management's perspective on market demand will help gauge future revenue potential and operational strategies.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Ferguson's ability to capitalize on the ongoing recovery in construction and home improvement sectors, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
Ferguson's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance, suggesting potential for continued growth.
Options pricing indicates a smaller expected move than historical averages, hinting at a possible undervaluation.
The company's commitment to expanding product offerings may position it well against competitors.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS significantly above expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as investors weigh the impact of economic conditions on Ferguson's growth prospects.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $3.60 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $3.00 would raise concerns about declining profitability and market challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.78%
Historical Avg
±9.16%
The options market is pricing in a move of about 7.78%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility following the earnings report.
Options are pricing a smaller move than the historical average, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
31.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options cheap in Industrials
Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Ferguson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 10%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to muted stock movement, as investors await clearer signals on future growth.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, the stock could drop by around 7.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 16, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.