Equity Profile

FERG

Ferguson Enterprises Inc.

IndustrialsTrading Companies & Distributors$48.0B

May5Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:45 AM EDT

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Down 3.06%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.28	N/A	+6.69%
Revenue	N/A	N/A	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Down 3.06%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.28	N/A	+6.69%
Revenue	N/A	N/A	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Ferguson Enterprises reported a better-than-expected EPS for the first quarter of 2026, but there was no revenue figure disclosed. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.06%, which may reflect investor concerns despite the earnings beat. The lack of guidance and additional context from management could also be contributing factors to the stock's decline.

Company Snapshot

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products, serving both residential and commercial markets....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial for sustaining profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products, serving both residential and commercial markets. As a major player in the industrial sector, it benefits from trends in construction and home improvement, making its performance relevant to investors focused on economic recovery and infrastructure spending.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 6Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

67%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.07%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.91%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ferguson reported an EPS of $3.48, significantly beating estimates by 22.49%. The stock reacted positively, gaining nearly 8% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Commitment to maintaining operational efficiency.
Focus on expanding product offerings in key markets.
Plans to enhance customer service and support.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Ferguson's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors looking for signs of continued growth amid economic uncertainties.

Bull Case

If Ferguson can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or exceed its previous EPS surprises, it could signal robust market demand and operational strength.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of declining demand or lower-than-expected EPS could raise concerns about the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $3.48?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether Ferguson can maintain its growth momentum and investor confidence.

How is the company addressing current market demand trends, particularly in the residential and commercial sectors?

Understanding management's perspective on market demand will help gauge future revenue potential and operational strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ferguson's ability to capitalize on the ongoing recovery in construction and home improvement sectors, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Ferguson's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance, suggesting potential for continued growth.

Options pricing indicates a smaller expected move than historical averages, hinting at a possible undervaluation.

The company's commitment to expanding product offerings may position it well against competitors.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS significantly above expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as investors weigh the impact of economic conditions on Ferguson's growth prospects.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.60 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.00 would raise concerns about declining profitability and market challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.78%

Historical Avg

±9.16%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 7.78%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility following the earnings report.

Options are pricing a smaller move than the historical average, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

31.0%

Calls (140K)P/C Ratio: 0.41Puts (58K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options cheap in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.0% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ferguson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 10%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report may lead to muted stock movement, as investors await clearer signals on future growth.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could drop by around 7.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on any changes in market demand for plumbing and heating products.
2Updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Insights into customer acquisition and retention efforts.
4Any commentary on supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.
5Management's outlook on the economic environment and its impact on future growth.

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Company Snapshot

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products, serving both residential and commercial markets....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial for sustaining profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 6Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

67%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.07%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.91%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ferguson reported an EPS of $3.48, significantly beating estimates by 22.49%. The stock reacted positively, gaining nearly 8% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Commitment to maintaining operational efficiency.
Focus on expanding product offerings in key markets.
Plans to enhance customer service and support.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Ferguson's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors looking for signs of continued growth amid economic uncertainties.

Bull Case

If Ferguson can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or exceed its previous EPS surprises, it could signal robust market demand and operational strength.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of declining demand or lower-than-expected EPS could raise concerns about the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $3.48?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether Ferguson can maintain its growth momentum and investor confidence.

How is the company addressing current market demand trends, particularly in the residential and commercial sectors?

Understanding management's perspective on market demand will help gauge future revenue potential and operational strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ferguson's ability to capitalize on the ongoing recovery in construction and home improvement sectors, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Ferguson's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance, suggesting potential for continued growth.

Options pricing indicates a smaller expected move than historical averages, hinting at a possible undervaluation.

The company's commitment to expanding product offerings may position it well against competitors.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS significantly above expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as investors weigh the impact of economic conditions on Ferguson's growth prospects.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.60 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.00 would raise concerns about declining profitability and market challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.78%

Historical Avg

±9.16%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 7.78%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility following the earnings report.

Options are pricing a smaller move than the historical average, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

31.0%

Calls (140K)P/C Ratio: 0.41Puts (58K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options cheap in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.0% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ferguson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 10%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report may lead to muted stock movement, as investors await clearer signals on future growth.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could drop by around 7.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on any changes in market demand for plumbing and heating products.
2Updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Insights into customer acquisition and retention efforts.
4Any commentary on supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.
5Management's outlook on the economic environment and its impact on future growth.