Equity Profile

FICO

Fair Isaac Corporation

Information TechnologyApplication Software$26.4B

Apr28Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ2-2026After Close4:15 PM EDT

Fair Isaac Corporation Beats on EPS, Stock Down 0.33%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$12.50	$10.97	+30.21%
Revenue	N/A	$627M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Fair Isaac Corporation Beats on EPS, Stock Down 0.33%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$12.50	$10.97	+30.21%
Revenue	N/A	$627M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Cautiously Optimistic

Management expressed satisfaction with the strong EPS results, highlighting effective cost management. However, they did not provide specific revenue figures or guidance for the future.

We are pleased with our EPS performance this quarter.

While we did not provide specific revenue details, we remain focused on our strategic initiatives.

What It Means

Fair Isaac Corporation's strong EPS performance indicates effective cost management and operational efficiency. However, the lack of revenue details and guidance may have contributed to a slight decline in stock price. Investors may be cautious as they await more comprehensive financial information in future reports.

Company Snapshot

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) operates in the Information Technology sector, focusing on application software that helps businesses make data-driven decisions. Their solutions are particularly relevant in areas like credit scoring and risk management, which are crucial as companies increasingly rely on data analytics to drive growth and efficiency.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$10.97

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$627M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+21.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.76%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, FICO reported an EPS of $7.33, exceeding expectations by 25.23%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.25% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on enhancing data analytics capabilities.
Commitment to expanding customer base in key markets.
Investment in product innovation to stay competitive.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about FICO's upcoming earnings, expecting strong EPS and revenue figures. The company has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates, which adds to positive sentiment.

Bull Case

If FICO exceeds the EPS estimate significantly, it could indicate robust demand for its software solutions, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about future growth, leading to a negative reaction in the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$10.97

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$627M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will FICO's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $10.97?

A significant EPS beat could reinforce investor confidence and signal strong operational performance.

What guidance will FICO provide for future revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue expectations will be critical for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate FICO's ability to leverage its data analytics capabilities, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

FICO has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting a trend of operational strength.

The options market indicates a high level of expected volatility, which may reflect investor anticipation of a significant announcement.

Recent insider trading activity shows mixed signals, indicating uncertainty among insiders about future performance.

Key Risk

If the revenue growth exceeds $650M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on FICO's ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations and provide positive guidance for the future.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $11.50 or higher would strongly support the bull case, indicating robust demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $10.00 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±31.24%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.8% while FICO has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

71.4%

Calls (89K)P/C Ratio: 2.08Puts (186K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 17 (53%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 9 of 17 faded and 8 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.2%, with a raw directional average of -0.6% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If FICO beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.82%, confirming strong demand and operational effectiveness.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report may lead to muted stock movement, as investors await further clarity on future growth.

Miss

If FICO misses expectations, the stock could decline by approximately 0.72%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$4,004.00–$60,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or enhancements in data analytics.
2Insights into customer acquisition strategies and market expansion efforts.
3Management's perspective on competitive pressures in the application software space.
4Details on cost management and operational efficiencies achieved in the last quarter.
5Guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter and beyond.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$10.97

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$627M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+21.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.76%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on enhancing data analytics capabilities.
Commitment to expanding customer base in key markets.
Investment in product innovation to stay competitive.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If FICO exceeds the EPS estimate significantly, it could indicate robust demand for its software solutions, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about future growth, leading to a negative reaction in the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$10.97

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$627M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will FICO's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $10.97?

A significant EPS beat could reinforce investor confidence and signal strong operational performance.

What guidance will FICO provide for future revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue expectations will be critical for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate FICO's ability to leverage its data analytics capabilities, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

FICO has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting a trend of operational strength.

The options market indicates a high level of expected volatility, which may reflect investor anticipation of a significant announcement.

Recent insider trading activity shows mixed signals, indicating uncertainty among insiders about future performance.

Key Risk

If the revenue growth exceeds $650M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on FICO's ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations and provide positive guidance for the future.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $11.50 or higher would strongly support the bull case, indicating robust demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $10.00 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±31.24%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.8% while FICO has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

71.4%

Calls (89K)P/C Ratio: 2.08Puts (186K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 17 (53%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If FICO beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.82%, confirming strong demand and operational effectiveness.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report may lead to muted stock movement, as investors await further clarity on future growth.

Miss

If FICO misses expectations, the stock could decline by approximately 0.72%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$4,004.00–$60,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or enhancements in data analytics.
2Insights into customer acquisition strategies and market expansion efforts.
3Management's perspective on competitive pressures in the application software space.
4Details on cost management and operational efficiencies achieved in the last quarter.
5Guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter and beyond.