Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$12.18
EPS est.
$10.37
EPS surprise
+17.45%
1-day move
+2.76%
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is a technology company that specializes in analytics and decision management software. With a focus on helping businesses make better decisions through data, FICO plays a crucial role in sectors like finance and insurance, particularly as companies increasingly rely on data-driven insights to enhance customer experiences and manage risk.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, FICO reported an impressive EPS of $12.50, significantly beating estimates by over 30%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+24.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.01%
Analysts are generally optimistic about FICO's upcoming earnings, expecting strong EPS growth and solid revenue figures. The company has a history of exceeding earnings expectations, which could bolster investor confidence.
Bull case
If FICO continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal robust demand for its software solutions, leading to increased investor interest and a potential stock price rally.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about future growth, leading to a negative reaction from the market.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$11.11Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and can influence investor sentiment.
Revenue
$665MRevenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will FICO's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $11.11?
A strong EPS could reinforce the company's growth narrative and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?
Clear guidance on revenue expectations will be critical for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market positioning.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
While the consensus expects steady growth, FICO's unique market position and recent product innovations could lead to higher-than-expected demand.
Supporting evidence
FICO has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting that analysts may be underestimating its growth potential.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders anticipate significant developments.
Key risk
If guidance indicates a slowdown in demand or unexpected challenges, it could undermine the current bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on FICO's ability to maintain its growth momentum amid a competitive landscape.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $12.00 or higher would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $10.50 would raise concerns about the company's growth potential.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.4%
Historical Avg
±1.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 5.4%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.4% while FICO has averaged ±1.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
42.7%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.93%
of float
Insider
3.02%
of float
Holders
1,252
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
2,085,336 sh · $1.4B
9.66%
-4.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If FICO beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +0.76%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors await clearer guidance, potentially resulting in minimal stock movement.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around +0.72%, which could raise concerns about future growth.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,477,322 sh · $1.0B
6.84%
-1.7%
Capital Research Global Investors
1,296,893 sh · $884.2M
6.00%
15.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
1,255,104 sh · $855.7M
5.81%
-0.0%
Capital International Investors
1,247,685 sh · $850.6M
5.78%
75.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Apr 14, 2026 · disclosed May 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.