Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
EPS actual
$0.74
EPS est.
$1.02
EPS surprise
-27.80%
1-day move
-0.64%
First Merchants Corporation reported an EPS of $0.74, which was significantly below expectations, leading to a stock decline of 0.64%. The lack of revenue data and management commentary adds uncertainty to the outlook. Investors may be concerned about the company's performance given the EPS miss.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.74 | N/A | -27.80% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
First Merchants Corporation is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including commercial banking, mortgage lending, and investment services. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the Midwest, and is influenced by trends in consumer spending and interest rates.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, First Merchants reported an EPS of $1.03, beating estimates by 7.63%. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.02% the following day, reflecting cautious optimism among investors.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+0.80%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.44%
Overall, expectations for First Merchants' upcoming earnings report are mixed, with uncertainty surrounding loan growth and net interest margins amid changing economic conditions.
Bull case
If the company reports strong loan growth and maintains or improves its net interest margin, it could signal robust demand and profitability, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if loan growth is weak or net interest margins decline, it may raise concerns about the bank's ability to sustain profitability, potentially leading to a negative market reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the growth rate of loans this quarter?
Loan growth is crucial for assessing the bank's ability to generate revenue and may significantly influence investor sentiment.
Q2
How has the net interest margin changed compared to last quarter?
Changes in net interest margin can directly impact profitability, making it a key focus for investors looking for signs of financial health.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating the potential for strong loan growth driven by improving economic conditions, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility, which could indicate uncertainty in consensus estimates.
The historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests that First Merchants has a strong track record of exceeding expectations.
Key risk
If loan growth exceeds 5%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a reassessment of the stock's value.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter, the debate centers around the bank's ability to grow loans while maintaining healthy profit margins in a potentially challenging economic environment.
Bull confirmed if
Loan growth of 5% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm a strong demand for credit.
Bear confirmed if
A decline in net interest margin below 3% would raise concerns about profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±24.81%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±24.8% while FRME has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
19.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials
Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
75.56%
of float
Insider
2.10%
of float
Holders
406
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
5,324,728 sh · $209.2M
8.48%
8.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If First Merchants beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, with an average 1-day move of around -0.41%, indicating cautious optimism.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting the market's wait-and-see approach.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential downside move of around +2.04%, indicating heightened concern among investors.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
3,689,776 sh · $145.0M
5.88%
2.6%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,402,832 sh · $133.7M
5.42%
1.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,720,680 sh · $106.9M
4.33%
-0.4%
State Street Corporation
2,551,308 sh · $100.2M
4.06%
13.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.