Equity Profile

GEF

Greif, Inc.

MaterialsMetal, Glass & Plastic Containers$3.6B

Apr28Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ2-2026After Close4:00 PM EDT

Greif, Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.12%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.22	$1.07	-81.03%
Revenue	N/A	$1.1B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Greif, Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.12%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.22	$1.07	-81.03%
Revenue	N/A	$1.1B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Defensive

Management expressed concern over current market conditions affecting profitability. They did not provide any forward guidance, indicating uncertainty about future performance.

Management acknowledged the significant shortfall in earnings expectations.

They highlighted ongoing challenges in the market impacting performance.

There was no guidance provided for future quarters.

What It Means

The disappointing earnings per share figure indicates that Greif, Inc. is facing significant challenges, which may concern investors about the company's ability to meet future expectations. The stock's slight decline of 0.12% reflects a muted reaction to the news, likely due to the already low expectations set by the market. Without any guidance, investors may remain cautious about the company's near-term prospects.

Company Snapshot

Greif, Inc. is a leading provider of industrial packaging products and services, primarily serving the materials sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is managing its costs.

$1.07

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

$1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Greif, Inc. is a leading provider of industrial packaging products and services, primarily serving the materials sector. With a focus on metal, glass, and plastic containers, Greif plays a crucial role in supporting various industries, including chemicals and food, which are essential for global supply chains.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+214.83%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.13%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Greif reported an EPS of $0.48, significantly missing the estimate of $0.69, which raised concerns about its profitability. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.25% the following day despite the miss.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Greif's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, the recent earnings miss has led to some skepticism about the company's ability to meet these targets.

Bull Case

If Greif can exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal a turnaround in operational efficiency and demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Greif fails to meet expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its profitability and market position, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.07

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

$1.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Greif achieve an EPS of at least $1.07?

Meeting or exceeding this EPS target is critical for restoring investor confidence after recent misses.

What factors contributed to the revenue forecast of $1.1B?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue expectations will help assess the company's market position and demand trends.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Greif's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, as operational adjustments could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Greif's recent history shows significant surprises in both directions, indicating potential volatility.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating market uncertainty.

The company's focus on operational efficiency may yield unexpected improvements in profitability.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $0.86, it could reinforce negative sentiment and lead to a significant sell-off.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal for Greif as it seeks to recover from previous earnings misses and demonstrate operational improvements.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.07 or better, along with revenue of at least $1.1B, would confirm a positive outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.86 or revenue below $1.1B would indicate ongoing challenges and confirm bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.81%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move for Greif's stock following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing ±6.8% while GEF has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

25.0%

Calls (3K)P/C Ratio: 0.07Puts (200)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 10 of 25 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 10 of 25 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$140,834.40

2,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$140,834.40

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

SVP, Chief Commercial OfficerBergwall Timothy
$140,834.40

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Greif beats expectations, history suggests a positive market reaction, with an average 1-day move of +0.47%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

Should Greif miss expectations again, the stock could decline, with history indicating an average 1-day move of -0.27% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management initiatives and their impact on margins.
2Insights into demand trends in key markets, particularly chemicals and food packaging.
3Management's outlook on supply chain challenges and their resolution.
4Details on customer retention and acquisition strategies in a competitive landscape.
5Any commentary on the impact of macroeconomic factors on future performance.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Greif, Inc. is a leading provider of industrial packaging products and services, primarily serving the materials sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is managing its costs.

$1.07

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

$1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+214.83%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.13%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Greif can exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal a turnaround in operational efficiency and demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Greif fails to meet expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its profitability and market position, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.07

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

$1.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Greif achieve an EPS of at least $1.07?

Meeting or exceeding this EPS target is critical for restoring investor confidence after recent misses.

What factors contributed to the revenue forecast of $1.1B?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue expectations will help assess the company's market position and demand trends.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Greif's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, as operational adjustments could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Greif's recent history shows significant surprises in both directions, indicating potential volatility.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating market uncertainty.

The company's focus on operational efficiency may yield unexpected improvements in profitability.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $0.86, it could reinforce negative sentiment and lead to a significant sell-off.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal for Greif as it seeks to recover from previous earnings misses and demonstrate operational improvements.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.07 or better, along with revenue of at least $1.1B, would confirm a positive outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.86 or revenue below $1.1B would indicate ongoing challenges and confirm bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.81%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move for Greif's stock following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing ±6.8% while GEF has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

25.0%

Calls (3K)P/C Ratio: 0.07Puts (200)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 10 of 25 (40%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$140,834.40

2,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$140,834.40

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

SVP, Chief Commercial OfficerBergwall Timothy
$140,834.40

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Greif beats expectations, history suggests a positive market reaction, with an average 1-day move of +0.47%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

Should Greif miss expectations again, the stock could decline, with history indicating an average 1-day move of -0.27% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management initiatives and their impact on margins.
2Insights into demand trends in key markets, particularly chemicals and food packaging.
3Management's outlook on supply chain challenges and their resolution.
4Details on customer retention and acquisition strategies in a competitive landscape.
5Any commentary on the impact of macroeconomic factors on future performance.