Equity Profile

GFF

Griffon Corporation

IndustrialsBuilding Products$4.8B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Griffon Corporation (GFF) operates in the industrials sector, focusing on building products. With a market cap of $5 billion, the company plays a significant role in the construction and home improvement markets, which are influenced by consumer spending and housing trends.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

$1.34

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$458M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

GFF Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.66%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.62%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2026, Griffon reported an EPS of $1.05, beating estimates by 6.49%. However, the stock declined by 2.05% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Griffon to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.34. Investors are particularly focused on whether the company can maintain or exceed these expectations.

Bull Case

If Griffon beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand in the building products sector, driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price, reflecting market concerns about future performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.34

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue

$458M

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.34?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What guidance will management provide for future revenue growth?

Forward-looking guidance is crucial for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Griffon's ability to leverage recent market trends in the building products sector, potentially leading to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS beat rate of 63% suggests a higher likelihood of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting investor anticipation of volatility that may not align with consensus views.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $474M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it will provide insights into the company's ability to navigate market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.40 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong earnings growth.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.30 would support the bear case, suggesting potential challenges ahead.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.98%

Historical Avg

±9.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while GFF has averaged ±9.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.1%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Griffon beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 7.04%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react moderately, reflecting cautious optimism among investors.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 10.08%, indicating disappointment in the market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or market expansions.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Comments on supply chain stability and its effect on production.
4Details on customer demand trends in the building products sector.
5Management's outlook on macroeconomic factors affecting the industry.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Aug3

ONBMO

ON Semiconductor Corporation

PreviewView

Aug3

LBMO

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

$1.34

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$458M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

GFF Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.66%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.62%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2026, Griffon reported an EPS of $1.05, beating estimates by 6.49%. However, the stock declined by 2.05% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Griffon to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.34. Investors are particularly focused on whether the company can maintain or exceed these expectations.

Bull Case

If Griffon beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand in the building products sector, driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price, reflecting market concerns about future performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.34

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue

$458M

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.34?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What guidance will management provide for future revenue growth?

Forward-looking guidance is crucial for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Griffon's ability to leverage recent market trends in the building products sector, potentially leading to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS beat rate of 63% suggests a higher likelihood of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting investor anticipation of volatility that may not align with consensus views.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $474M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it will provide insights into the company's ability to navigate market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.40 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong earnings growth.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.30 would support the bear case, suggesting potential challenges ahead.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.98%

Historical Avg

±9.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.0% while GFF has averaged ±9.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.1%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Griffon beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 7.04%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react moderately, reflecting cautious optimism among investors.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 10.08%, indicating disappointment in the market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or market expansions.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Comments on supply chain stability and its effect on production.
4Details on customer demand trends in the building products sector.
5Management's outlook on macroeconomic factors affecting the industry.