Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.08
EPS est.
$0.05
EPS surprise
+60.00%
1-day move
+0.47%
GFL Environmental's earnings report shows a significant miss on EPS expectations, which typically raises concerns among investors. However, the stock reacted positively, increasing by 0.47%. This could indicate that investors are looking beyond the EPS miss, possibly due to other factors not disclosed in the earnings call.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.08 | $0.12 | +60.00% |
| Revenue | N/A | $1.6B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
GFL Environmental Inc. is a leading provider of environmental and facilities services, focusing on waste management and recycling solutions. As part of the industrials sector, GFL plays a crucial role in promoting sustainability and environmental responsibility, which are increasingly important themes in today's economy.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, GFL reported an EPS of $0.36, significantly exceeding expectations and demonstrating strong operational performance. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.11% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
5Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+6.17%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.82%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about GFL's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest EPS of $0.12 and revenue of $1.6B. The company's recent strong performance may lead to positive sentiment.
Bull case
If GFL beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its services and lead to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if GFL misses expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its growth trajectory and negatively impact the stock.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.12Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$1.6BTotal revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will GFL's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.12?
A strong EPS could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Q2
What guidance will GFL provide for future revenue growth?
Guidance on revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's outlook and market position.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate GFL's ability to capitalize on increased demand for sustainable waste management solutions, especially given recent industry trends.
Supporting evidence
GFL has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.
The company's recent operational improvements and customer satisfaction initiatives could drive better-than-expected results.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant reaction.
Key risk
If GFL's revenue growth exceeds $1.7B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will indicate whether GFL can maintain its growth trajectory amidst market challenges.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.15 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and growth.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.10 would raise concerns about profitability and market conditions.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.46%
Historical Avg
±1.6%
The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that traders anticipate potential volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±4.1% while GFL has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
42.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
89.31%
of float
Insider
2.55%
of float
Holders
553
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Bc Partners Pe LP
29,912,724 sh · $1.3B
7.05%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If GFL beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.78%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.07%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
FMR, LLC
22,638,505 sh · $951.7M
5.34%
-11.1%
Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board
22,450,784 sh · $943.8M
5.29%
Flat
Capital Research Global Investors
21,919,416 sh · $921.5M
5.17%
-5.3%
Massachusetts Financial Services Co.
10,865,869 sh · $456.8M
2.56%
-0.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.